BELARUS NEWS AND ANALYSIS

DATE:

05/01/2007

"Europe's last dictator" loses in Belarus

Europe narrowly averted another energy supply crisis this week when Russia and Belarus struck a last-minute deal, preventing a threatened Russian cutoff of natural gas supplies. Since Russian gas flows through Belarus to Poland and Western Europe, a disruption could have affected consumers far beyond Belarus, as happened a year ago when Russia turned off the tap to Ukraine. The source of the dispute was the same in both cases: Russia?s demand that its neighbours pay vastly increased prices for gas and turn over controlling stakes in pipelines that carry gas to the rest of Europe. Belarus, like Ukraine, claimed that Moscow?s commercial hardball was politically motivated, while the Kremlin argued that it was merely ending subsidies that were a legacy of the Soviet Union.

In fact both sides are telling the truth ? but it?s the political ramifications that should concern Western governments. As executives of the Kremlin-controlled Gazprom company asserted, the price to be paid by Belarus ? $100 per thousand cubic meters of gas in 2007 ? is still one of the better deals Russia offers, even if it is far more than the previous rate of $46. But Belarus obtained the discount only by agreeing to sell a controlling interest in the transit line, thereby advancing Russia?s disturbing campaign to monopolize energy supplies to Europe.

Belarusan President Alexander Lukashenko is widely known as Europe?s last dictator. What?s less well known is that he has been resisting pressure from Russia to annex his country. Lukashenko signed a deal with Russian President Vladimir Putin several years ago under which the two countries would merge; by its terms Belarus was to adopt the Russian ruble and turn over the gas pipeline.

But Lukashenko, who once dreamed that the union would propel him toward becoming leader of both countries, changed his mind when he realised he was on his way to becoming a provincial governor. He has resisted yielding the pipeline or abandoning his country?s sovereignty.

Putin is consequently using ?market pricing? to extract what he wants from Belarus. ?We are being threatened with economic sanctions and isolation again,? Lukashenko said in a New Year?s address. ?The reason is simple: It is our desire to be independent.? He went on to denounce ?anti-Belarusan sentiments? in Russia that ?are dealing a blow to our century-old friendship.?

Lukashenko's disillusionment with Russia might make him wish for better relations with the West.

But as the European Union recently reiterated, that would require steps to democratise his country, something the strongman has shown no inclination to do. Still, Lukashenko?s assertion of Belarusan sovereignty and independence could open the way to reform. If Belarus is really to survive in the center of Europe independent from Russia, it will inevitably have to accept far greater change than simply paying the market price for gas.

Source:

http://www.thepeninsulaqatar.com/commentary/commentaryother.asp?file=januarycommentary72007.xml