BELARUS NEWS AND ANALYSIS

DATE:

09/01/2007

Expert about oil conflict between Moscow and Minsk: "Lukashenko is winning over Russia"

The complex of problems arisen around transit of the Russian oil via Belarusian territory is, on the one side, a boomerang of the gas issue, on the other hand, a whole bunch of domestic policy problems in the framework of the unified state, researcher at the Russian Institute for Strategic Studies Lyudmila Lantratova said talking to a REGNUM correspondent.

According to her, the sides should come to a compromise. "At present time, Lukashenko is winning over Moscow, as it is Russia that faces negative reaction of the European countries," the expert says. Result of the conflict, as Lantratova believes, depends on the stance of the Russian side, on how it articulates its priorities, its vision of prospects of making tougher the regime of the United Economic Space between the countries, countermeasures to restrict entrance of motor vehicles in its territory and so on.

Answering a question of a REGNUM correspondent whether the idea of the Unified State becomes exhausted after the oil-and-gas conflict between Moscow and Minsk, the expert said that the idea had been already discredited. "It is backed in certain political circles only that have some interest in it. Everything will depend on how Russia intends to build its relations with CIS countries in general," the researcher believes. Speaking on methods of influencing position of Minsk, Lyudmila Lantratova said that Moscow, undoubtedly, has instruments of influence. "The Belarusian market is bound to Russia. It is component parts, agricultural and live farming produce, it is a key market, which is extremely important for Belarus," she said. The expert ruled out a possibility of Russia using measures of political pressure. In conclusion she added that European consumers of the Russian oil, like in the case with gas transit via Ukraine, will put the blame on Moscow. "It is hard to find anyone to blame here, the problem is in the dimension of the bilateral relations," Lyudmila Lantratova said.

As REGNUM reported before, transit of the Russian oil to European countries via Belarus was suspended. Earlier, Transneft CEO Semyon Vainshtok announced that since January 6 Belarus has illegally pumped out 80,000 tons of oil from the pipe. Before that, Russia introduced a new export duty for oil sent to the neighboring country worth $180 per ton. On January 8, Poland announced that it stopped receiving oil through Druzhba pipeline.

Source:

http://www.regnum.ru/english/764040.html

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