BELARUS NEWS AND ANALYSIS

DATE:

11/01/2007

Energy clash with Russia means political battle for Lukashenko in Belarus

The Associated Press

MINSK, Belarus: For years, the blustery Belarusian president has leaned on Moscow for massive support of his authoritarian regime, relying heavily on cut-rate Russian energy supplies to keep his nation satisfied and his opponents at bay.

Now autocratic leader Alexander Lukashenko is in the fight of his life, facing down the Kremlin in a bruising battle over energy prices that could badly erode his popularity in the nation of 10 million - or burnish his carefully crafted image as a hero beset by foes from all sides.

Local elections this weekend could be an early indicator of which way the wind is blowing for the increasingly isolated man the West calls "Europe's last dictator." Although the voting is unlikely to be regarded abroad as free or fair, the recent energy battle has unsettled even some of the president's supporters.

"I voted for Lukashenko and have supported him, but my family does not intend to suffer hunger and cold because of him," said Tatyana Narutskaya, 43, who works in a candy factory in the capital, Minsk.

Lukashenko has kept his country's largely Soviet-style, centrally controlled economy chugging along with the help of inexpensive Russian gas and put billions of dollars a year into its coffers by reselling products refined from duty-free Russian oil.

The cheap energy was seen as quid-pro-quo for loyalty from Lukashenko, whose country is a buffer against an expanding NATO and Russia's partner in an ill-defined union that was established in the 1990s and served as a basis for Kremlin efforts to gain more control over Belarus.

But Lukashenko has balked at moves that would cede clout to Moscow, such as a plan to establish the Russian ruble as a single currency, provoking increasing irritation in the Kremlin.

In the first round of the energy fight, Lukashenko lost in a split decision. Belarus had to agree to doubling the price it pays for gas this year - but Russia initially was seeking a fourfold increase, and Belarus inflicted some bruises on Russia's image by waiting until there were less than five minutes remaining in 2006 to sign the deal.

The second round, over oil, is still under way. Minsk, enraged that Russia slapped a heavy export duty on the oil it sells Belarus, retaliated by imposing a fat transit fee on Russian oil that crosses Belarus in pipelines ending in EU countries. Russia turned off the oil flow on Monday, raising alarm in the destination countries.

Belarus lifted the transit fee on Wednesday after the president's office claimed an unspecified "compromise" had been reached. It was unclear whether Russia, facing international criticism and a possible cutback in the oil production that is its economic backbone, had given any ground.

The lack of oil supplies from Russia could put a large number of Belarusians out of work - a situation that could clearly cause major problems for a leader whose popularity is largely due to the virtual guarantee of a stable, if modest, living.

So far, there are no lines at gas stations, no interruptions in heat and no major change in the rate of the Belarusian currency. But sentiments like Narutskaya's could spread if the energy dispute persists.

"Lukashenko has no resources for prolonged confrontation with Russia. Power is slipping from his hands, and his aggressive behavior is just a defense mechanism of a person who is cornered," said independent analyst Yaroslav Romanchuk.

On the home front, Lukashenko - who has been honing his image as a target of Western malice for years - has mounted a major campaign to blame eastern neighbor Russia for the effects of the energy dispute, apparently banking on the Belarusian people to rally around him.

The country's state-controlled television networks, which lambasted the United States and Europe during the elections last March, are now setting their sights on Russia. News broadcasts begin with references to "unfriendly Russian actions" and "the treacherous Russian position."

The effects of the propaganda push remain to be seen.

The main opposition leader, Alexander Milinkevich, suggested Sunday's local elections would not accurately reflect public opinion, contending that they were being held "under colossal pressure from the authorities" and would be falsified. He said the opposition would use the elections to tell voters about "the dangerous situation in which Lukashenko has placed Belarus."

While Moscow has withdrawn support from Lukashenko, it has no visible alternative to push as a replacement in Belarus, where the opposition is mostly Western-leaning and wary of Russia. The opposition fears Russia's intention is not to drive Lukashenko from power, but to drive Belarus into debt and force him to surrender control over pipelines and other key assets to Russia.

Source:

http://www.iht.com/articles/ap/2007/01/11/europe/EU-GEN-Belarus-Lukashenkos-Battle-Royal.php