BELARUS NEWS AND ANALYSIS

DATE:

16/01/2007

Belarus leader comes out fighting after Russia row

By Michael Stott

REUTERS

MOSCOW - The long-planned marriage is off and the gas bill is doubling but neither is likely to faze the man dubbed 'Europe's last dictator' by the West.

On the face of it, things could hardly be worse for Belarus President Alexander Lukashenko.

A bruising row with his main sponsor Russia ended with him paying twice as much for vital gas supplies and accepting cuts in subsidies from Moscow that prop up nearly half his budget.

Moves towards political union between the two ex-Soviet states have halted amid mutual acrimony and relations between Lukashenko and Russian president Vladimir Putin have soured.

The EU has slapped visa bans and asset freezes on Belarus's government to protest at what it terms a lack of democracy. The United States calls the country an 'outpost of tyranny'.

Yet analysts believe it is far too soon to write off Lukashenko, a wily populist who has ruled Belarus since 1994, crushing all opposition.

'Lukashenko is a survivor,' said Nikolai Petrov of the Carnegie Moscow Center think-tank. 'He plans to be the president of an independent country long after Putin leaves the scene (after a Russian presidential election next year).'

Julia Tsepliaeva, chief CIS economist at ING Bank, said that once the complicated maths of the latest Russia-Belarus energy deal was unravelled, Belarus had come off quite well.

Although Minsk will pay just over double for Russian natural gas this year and swallow cuts in oil subsidies, Russia agreed to pay what is seen as a generous $2.5 billion for a half share in the Belarus gas pipeline and committed to prop up the economy to the tune of $5.8 billion this year.

'If we analyse the money flows, Lukashenko is a winner', Tsepliaeva said. 'He has got five more years of subsidies from Russia which means resources for him to feed his popularity'.

Although better known abroad for jailing dissidents and for allegations of rigging elections, Lukashenko has won popularity at home by presiding over rapid economic growth and generous welfare subsidies in a centrally planned, Soviet-style economy.

LUKASHENKO'S 'RUSSIA PLUS'

'Lukashenko's idea was to create a better version of Russia, a sort of 'Russia Plus', free of oligarchs, social problems, corruption and terrorism,' said Fyodor Lukyanov, editor of Russia in Global Affairs, a foreign policy journal. 'This has given Belarus a unique national identity'.

Tsepliaeva predicted Belarussian GDP - turbo-charged by Russian subsidies - would continue to grow strongly next year, probably by more than 8 percent, after 2006's 10.6 percent.

And if anything goes wrong, Lukashenko, a former collective farm manager who once pledged to wring the necks of those who joined opposition protests, can blame Moscow for his problems.

Once-strong support in Belarus for political union with Russia, a project dating back to the 1990s, has ebbed as it became clear Moscow would demand subservience so Lukashenko is unlikely to lose politically by abandoning the marriage.

Speaking to reporters after voting in local elections on Sunday, Lukashenko gave a hint of things to come, casting himself as the patriotic defender of the Belarussian state against bullying from Moscow.

'They thought they could put a noose around Lukashenko's neck and get everything they wanted. It didn't work out,' he boasted.

PUTIN STUCK WITH LUKASHENKO

Although the Belarussian leader has angered Putin, analysts say the Russian president is stuck with his troublesome ally for lack of a suitable alternative.

'Any future leader in Belarussia is likely to re-orientate the country to a more pro-European policy,' said Lukyanov.

Lukashenko has also recently made some overtures towards the West, praising Europe and the United States for supporting Minsk in the crisis with Russia and declaring himself ready to boost cooperation with Europe.

Analysts dismissed these remarks as a bluff, saying the Belarussian leader knew only too well Europe would never back a president accused of ordering the elimination of political opponents.

'The most likely scenario now is more confrontation with Russia,' said Lukyanov.

'If Lukashenko starts to feel that the new economic situation with lower subsidies is dangerous for him, the only way to prevent the political

Source:

http://www.signonsandiego.com/news/world/20070116-0631-belarus.html