BELARUS NEWS AND ANALYSIS

DATE:

02/02/2007

Brussels mistrusts Belarus' pro-EU talk

By Andrew Rettman

EUOBSERVER / BRUSSELS - Belarus leader Aleksander Lukashenko's recent pro-EU statements are unlikely to translate into real perestroika in Europe's "last dictatorship" analysts say, but Minsk's energy rift with Moscow is posing one of the biggest threats in recent years to Lukashenko's grip on power.

"It is very important for us to mend relations with the west...Europe has taken a new view of Belarus and a new situation has resulted," the president told state-run news agency BELTA on 30 January, alluding to a November 2006 paper from Brussels on how Belarus could benefit from EU aid if it frees political prisoners and holds normal elections.

Earlier this week Lukashenko urged the EU to end a travel ban on his officials and even suggested that he wants to join the European Union and adopt the euro, while talking about Russia's 1 January gas and oil price hikes in terms of "stinking carrion" and a "massive attack on Belarus."

The rhetoric was accompanied by a stunt involving NGO the Belarus Helsinki Committee which saw Belarus tax authorities evict the pro-democracy group from its Minsk premises on 30 January, Brussels issue a ritual condemnation the same day and Belarus change its mind on the eviction one day later.

The EU has responded to the new developments with a poker face - diplomats say EU sanctions will stay in place until Belarus takes "concrete" action on the 12-step democratisation plan outlined in the November paper. "It's up to him, he knows very well what to do," one contact said.

In the background, EU officials are trying to leverage the situation to open a new European Commission office in Minsk and ease flows of aid to opposition groups. They have also agreed to meet Belarus officials later this month to talk about potential energy projects.

But it is hard to find anybody in the west who believes that Lukashenko will change his spots. "Lukashenko is a criminal - he's not a partner for discussion," one senior EU diplomat told EUobserver. "If he really made these changes, this would lead to the end of his career and he would probably end up in jail [the international court in The Hague]."

Meanwhile, the new Russian energy prices are hurting the regime. Polish daily Gazeta Wyborcza says a knock-on 20 percent rise in domestic gas and electricity prices in Belarus - where people live on ?60 to ?140 a month - has seen people rush to exchange Belarusian roubles for dollars or euros fearing an economic crisis.

Last March, 15,000 protestors defied government death threats to complain against Lukashenko's re-election in the largest opposition rally in his 13-year rule. A protest slated for 17 or 18 March is expected to attract fewer people, but in the long-term the end of the "Belarus economic miracle" myth could see opposition numbers swell.

Russia puzzles all

Meanwhile, Russia's shift has puzzled the most seasoned of analysts. EU diplomats in Minsk do not buy the theory that Russia is bullying Lukashenko into state union, arguing that a sovereign Belarus is tactically more attractive: it is a buffer against EU and NATO expansion and backs Russian foreign policy lines at the UN and in Russian media.

"It's impossible to say what Russia's plan is," Igor Blazevic, the head of Czech NGO People in Need, said. "You should never rule out the element of irrationality in Russian foreign policy. Perhaps they are just testing out their power. Trying to show Lukashenko and the west who's boss in Belarus. Testing out a scenario."

For his part, Lukashenko keeps firing back. Belarus decision to siphon EU-bound oil from the Druzhba pipeline in January - which led to the closure of the pipe - did more damage to Russia's reputation as a reliable energy supplier than Belarus. Minsk's January news bulletins are peppered with threats to charge Russia new oil rents this month.

Some observers say the scenario of a Russian-backed coup in Belarus is far-fetched. But large chunks of Belarus' KGB and civil service keep close ties with the Kremlin, while the pro-Russian wing of the Belarusian opposition, linked to Aleksander Kozulin, has reportedly seen increased funding from Russia in recent months.

If Russian-backed regime change is unrealistic for now, it is still more realistic than democratic reform or a popular revolution, however. "Lukashenko has been betrayed by the Kremlin and has nowhere to turn," another EU diplomat said. "If he keeps up this energy policy with Russia, he could find himself falling down the stairs or being buried in the woods."

Source:

http://euobserver.com/9/23413

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