BELARUS NEWS AND ANALYSIS

DATE:

22/03/2007

Belarusian opposition prepares for rally, authorities threaten criminal prosecution

The Associated Press

MINSK, Belarus: Just having a European Union sticker on one's backpack appears to be enough to attract police attention in the Belarusian capital, as the country's repressive leadership braces for what is expected to be a major opposition rally on Sunday.

Young people crossing Oktyabrskaya Square, the vast downtown space where the opposition wants to rally, have been stopped frequently by police in recent days. The police search their bags and take their names, heightening the usual level of intimidation that pervades the country under President Alexander Lukashenko.

A massive rally a year ago on March 25 capped an unprecedented week of protests that broke out after Lukashenko's re-election in a vote widely criticized by the West as seriously flawed.

Many known opposition supporters across the country have been summoned to police stations for so-called "preliminary discussions," rights activists say.

"Lukashenko governs by animal fear," said Alexander Milinkevich, the central figure of the opposition forces that hope to make a showing of thousands that would regain the momentum of last year's actions.

The planned demonstration marks what the opposition calls Freedom Day, the anniversary of the 1918 declaration of the first independent Belarusian state - which lasted only 10 months and was able to do little more than establish a flag. March 25 has since become a rallying day for the opposition, although the gatherings usually are broken up quickly and harshly by police.

Police clubbed demonstrators at last year's rally and arrested hundreds, including Alexander Kozulin, a presidential candidate who was sentenced to 5 1/2 years.

The government has told the opposition that it can gather only in a small park on the outskirts of Minsk, but activists said they did not intend to accept that limit.

"No one is going to just give Belarusians democracy. We have to want it," said 19-year-old Stanislav Kiselchuk, who said he planned to attend the rally regardless of the risk.

Lukashenko has ruled Belarus for 13 years, quashing dissent and opposition parties and shutting down independent news media. He has been called "Europe's last dictator" by some Western countries, and been slapped with sanctions by the United States and the European Union.

Lukashenko's isolation deepened this year, amid a bitter dispute with Moscow - which had been one of his few allies - over oil and gas prices.

That dispute resulted in a drastic increase in the price Belarus pays for Russian natural gas and a decrease in the profits that Belarus can expect from the sale of oil products refined in Belarus from Russian crude. Lukashenko relied heavily on cheap Russian energy supplies, and his opponents hope the economic pressure will make him politically vulnerable.

Lukashenko's response has been uncharacteristically conciliatory. Recently, he said: "We are ready to become an exemplary pupil of the West."

Some Europeans have put forward the idea of "peace talks," but also have demanded reforms and the release of people jailed for political reasons.

How the authorities respond to Sunday's rally "will become an important test for Lukashenko's regime and demonstrate to Europe the real meaning of his words concerning a closer relationship," said Hans-Gert Pottering, chairman of the European Parliament.

Independent analyst Yaroslav Romanchuk said it was unlikely that Lukashenko had sincere interest in any real change.

"Lukashenko is trying to win time, hoping that he'll achieve some concessions from the West that will strengthen his position in relation to Moscow," he said.

The opposition has said some of its activists were being rounded up and ordered not to travel to Minsk for the rally. Valer Matskevich, an activist from Bobruisk, said authorities had "openly intimidated and threatened me." His friend, activist Andrus Famin, was jailed for seven days for swearing - a tactic often used by authorities, Matskevich said.

Some opposition figures in Belarus insist that now is the opposition's best chance to act, while Lukashenko remains estranged from the West and isolated from Russia. But the opposition is showing fresh signs of division, with some suggesting it is time for Milinkevich to yield the leadership mantle to someone new.

"Milinkevich is not an English king. No one chose him for life," said Anatoly Lebedko, leader of the United Civil Party, who agreed last year to put aside his own presidential ambitions to support Milinkevich in last year's race.

Milinkevich, meanwhile, has pleaded for the opposition to sideline factional concerns and focus on a dramatic turnout Sunday.

"Only when we get 400,000 people on the streets of Minsk ... can we expect change," he said.

Source:

http://www.iht.com/articles/ap/2007/03/22/europe/EU-GEN-Belarus-Opposition-Protest.php