BELARUS NEWS AND ANALYSIS

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Analysis: Rice and 'change' in Belarus

By Peter Lavelle
UPI Moscow correspondent Published April 21, 2005

MOSCOW -- U.S. Secretary of State Condoleezza Rice and Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov, meeting in Lithuania on Thursday, clashed over what should or should not happen in neighboring Belarus.

Rice calls Belarus "the last dictatorship in the heart of Europe" and promotes democratic change there. Lavrov, without directly disagreeing, cautioned that "the process of reform cannot be imposed from outside."

Leaving Moscow after a two-day visit, Rice arrived in Vilnius to attend the first major meeting of NATO members in a former Soviet republic. With an agenda focused on the military alliance's future beyond Europe - including discussion of Ukraine's eventual membership - and to sign a number of cooperative agreements with Russia, Rice and Lavrov publicly disagreed on how to approach the isolated Belarussian regime headed by President Alexander Lukashenko.

Rice told a press conference after meeting with Belarussian civil society activists she believed it was "time for change to come to Belarus." Lavrov responded that: "We would not, of course, be advocating what some people call regime changes anywhere." He added: "We think the democratic process, the process of reform cannot be imposed from outside."

Belarus' Foreign Minister Sergei Martynov reacted to Rice's comments by striking a defiant note. He told the Interfax news agency that his country's future would be "determined by the nation's people and not U.S. Secretary of State Condoleezza Rice."

In the wake of the popular uprisings in Georgia and Ukraine, Belarus, has started to receive more attention and interest, particularly from the United States. Russia, being Belarus' only meaningful friend and ally, cannot remain indifferent. The Kremlin, if it decides to, can do more to promote democratic change in Belarus than all forces within and beyond this small former Soviet republic.

Belarus, with a population of 10 million, is an orphan of the Soviet past. In all but ideology, Belarus today is a snapshot taken from history. Its economy is centrally planned; the state is the overwhelming employer, social services are heavily subsidized, and even its KGB carries the same name. Disdainful and suspicious of the West, Belarus has chosen political and economic integration with Russia.

Lukashenko continues to defy the West and rule Belarus as a personal fiefdom, having pushed through what has been called a rigged referendum last October that effectively allows him to become president for life. However, he must still reckon with Vladimir Putin's Russia. With the planned Russia-Belarus Union (initially agreed to by Lukashenko and former Russian president Boris Yeltsin) still in play, Lukashenko does not have a strong hand to play. For all the good macroeconomic news Lukashenko likes to flaunt, he is painfully aware that Russia's good graces are the foundation of the Belarussian economic "miracle."

What Lukashenko does not like to hear is Western criticism of his rule. International rights groups have repeatedly criticized state inspired assaults against civil society, the lack of a free media, harassment of opposition groups, and the climate of fear and intimation with anything that has to do with politics. Parliament is a rubber stamp, and presidential decrees have the force of law. Some political opponents of Lukashenko's rule have "disappeared," others have been forced into exile.

Russia has a grip on Belarus' economy, and the grip is getting tighter. Russia accepts 62 percent of Belarus' exports and supplies 65 percent of its imports. Belarus is also completely dependent on Russian oil and natural gas deliveries. The economic reality that ties Belarus to Russia is also a political vice around Lukashenko's neck.

Lukashenko and Yeltsin got on famously. The same cannot be said about Lukashenko and Putin. Lukashenko wants a proposed Russia-Belarus Union to be based on equality and mutual benefit. Putin continues to support the Union, but only on his terms - terms that benefit Russia first and foremost. Thus, the Kremlin has helped Lukashenko paint himself into a corner. Lukashenko is more isolated in the world than ever before, with his only "friend" sitting in the Kremlin.

These circumstances make Lavrov's words "the process of reform cannot be imposed from outside" intriguing as well as puzzling. The Kremlin has enormous influence in Belarus and essentially controls Lukashenko's political destiny. It is within the Kremlin's power to promote change in Belarus without the population resorting to street protests, and the possibility of an uprising if vote-rigging in Belarus' upcoming 2006 elections is discovered.

Rice said the international community is watching events in Belarus. Russia is in a position to do much more than watch, and many Belarussians hope for as much from the man in the Kremlin.

--

Peter Lavelle is United Press International's Moscow correspondent.

Source:

http://www.wpherald.com/storyview.php?StoryID=20050421-114812-6771r


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