BELARUS NEWS AND ANALYSIS

DATE:

28/04/2006

Belarusian youth opposition leader sentenced to 15 days in jail

MINSK, Belarus (AP) - Belarusian authorities on Friday kept up their pressure against the opposition, sentencing a youth movement leader to 15 days in jail, while Russia exerted a different kind of pressure on Belarus, reportedly demanding the country increase what it pays Russia for gas by threefold.

Cheap Russian gas is a key to the economic growth that is one of authoritarian President Alexander Lukashenko's strong suits and a sharp increase in gas prices could end up undermining support for him.

A Minsk court on Friday sentenced Zmicer Dashkevich, head of the youth organization Malady Front, for taking part in an unauthorized demonstration. The ruling came a day after opposition leader Alexander Milinkevich and three of his deputies were handed similar sentences.

The charges stemmed from a Wednesday opposition rally that attracted around 10,000 people at its height. It was the largest opposition gathering since Milinkevich spearheaded a March 19 demonstration to protest elections that handed Lukashenko a third term in a vote widely denounced as fraudulent.

That demonstration set off a week of protests that were unprecedented in the country, where opposition forces and independent media are repressed and where unauthorized demonstrations are frequently dispersed violently by police.

The Wednesday rally, marking the 20th anniversary of the Chernobyl nuclear explosion and opposition claims that Lukashenko's government is lying about how it is coping with disaster's consequences, had received official approval. But officials later said both the rally and a loosely organized procession to the rally site were illegal.

The sentences put almost all of the opposition's top figures behind bars, leaving in doubt the prospects for a planned demonstration Monday marking the May Day holiday. If that rally is able to attract a similar crowd to Wednesday's, it would be a significant indicator that the opposition has a solid and sizable core.

The true core of support for Lukashenko, often described by Western countries as "Europe's last dictator," is difficult to gauge given the pressure on the opposition and the near-absence of free media. But his advocates point to Belarus' post-Soviet economic recovery - annual growth of 6 to 9 percent in recent years - as central to his appeal.

However, Russia's natural gas monopoly Gazprom has told Belarus it must begin paying "market prices" for gas in 2007. Exact details of the demand, to which Belarus has to respond by Monday, have not been made public.

But the Interfax news agency reported Friday, citing a source close to Gazprom, that Russia is demanding US$145 per 1,000 cubic meters; Belarus now pays $46.68. The report, which Gazprom declined to comment on, came as Lukashenko met Russian President Vladimir Putin in St. Petersburg.

Lukashenko has dismissed the possibility of paying higher prices, but his alternatives appear limited. One of them would be to cede control to Gazprom of the Belarusian pipeline network, which is a significant conduit for Russian gas shipments to Western Europe.

News reports meanwhile have suggested that Russia is preparing to exercise a clause in the agreement forming a loose union of Belarus and Russia under which Belarus would have to return to Moscow some of the profits it makes from refining Russian oil.

The prospect of economic troubles brought on by Lukashenko's Kremlin patrons is ironically pleasing to the opposition.

"In 2007, the economic situation will get significantly worse ... and people will turn to the opposition," Vintsuk Vyachorka, leader of the opposition Belarusian People's Front, told The Associated Press this week. "We will have the (organizational) infrastructure ready."

Just a few hours after Vyachorka made his comments, he was arrested for taking part in Wednesday's rally.

There were no reports of progress on the gas question from the Putin-Lukashenko meeting.

However, Putin appeared to elliptically encourage Lukashenko to ease up on the pressure against the opposition.

"It was pleasant for me to hear that you're in a mood for constructive work with all forces," Putin said, according to the ITAR-Tass news agency.

Although the Kremlin has supported Lukashenko and Russian officials have stated they regarded the March elections as valid, Russia and Belarus have frequently bickered over terms of the union agreement.

Russia's support of Lukashenko also is likely to be a top issue of discussion at this summer's summit in St. Petersburg of leaders of the Group of Eight, which includes the United States, Germany and other countries that have harshly criticized Lukashenko.

Western countries on Thursday condemned the jailing of Milinkevich, with U.S. State Department spokesman Adam Ereli calling it "outrageous and reprehensible."

Source:

http://www.kyivpost.com/bn/24375/

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