BELARUS NEWS AND ANALYSIS

DATE:

28/04/2006

Another Belarus opposition leader jailed

YURAS KARMANAU

Associated Press

MINSK, Belarus - Belarusian authorities kept up their pressure on government adversaries Friday, sentencing a youth movement leader to 15 days in jail a day after opposition leader Alexander Milinkevich and three of his deputies were handed similar sentences.

Meanwhile, Moscow exerted a different kind of pressure on Belarus, reportedly demanding the country increase what it pays Russia for natural gas by threefold. Cheap Russian gas is a key to the economic growth that is one of authoritarian President Alexander Lukashenko's strong suits and a sharp increase in prices could undermine his support.

A Minsk court sentenced Zmicer Dashkevich, head of the youth organization Malady Front, for taking part in an unauthorized demonstration.

The charges against Dashkevich and the other jailed opposition figures stemmed from a Wednesday opposition rally that attracted around 10,000 people. It was the largest opposition gathering since Milinkevich spearheaded a March 19 demonstration to protest elections that handed Lukashenko a third term but were widely denounced as fraudulent.

That rally set off a week of protests unprecedented in a country where opposition forces and independent media are repressed and where unauthorized demonstrations are frequently put down violently by police.

Wednesday's rally, marking the 20th anniversary of the Chernobyl nuclear accident and opposition claims that Lukashenko's government is lying about how it is coping with the disaster's consequences, had received official approval. But officials later said it was illegal.

Western countries on Thursday condemned the jailing of Milinkevich. State Department spokesman Adam Ereli called it "outrageous and reprehensible."

The sentences put almost all of the opposition's top figures behind bars, leaving in doubt the prospects for a planned demonstration Monday marking the May Day holiday. If that rally is able to attract a similar crowd to Wednesday's, it would be a significant indicator that the opposition has a solid, sizable core.

The true core of support for Lukashenko, often described by Western countries as "Europe's last dictator," is difficult to gauge given the pressure on the opposition and the near-absence of free media. But his advocates point to Belarus' post-Soviet economic recovery - annual growth of 6 percent to 9 percent in recent years - as central to his appeal.

However, Russia's natural gas monopoly Gazprom has told Belarus it must begin paying "market prices" for gas in 2007. Exact details of the demand, to which Belarus has to respond by Monday, have not been made public.

But the Interfax news agency reported Friday that Russia is demanding $145 per 35,000 cubic feet; Belarus now pays $46.68. The report, citing a source close to Gazprom, came as Lukashenko met Russian President Vladimir Putin in St. Petersburg. Gazprom declined to comment on it.

Lukashenko has dismissed the possibility of paying higher prices, but his alternatives appear limited.

News reports have suggested Russia is preparing to exercise a clause in the agreement forming a loose union of Belarus and Russia under which Belarus would have to return to Moscow some of the profits it makes from refining Russian oil.

The prospect of economic troubles brought on by Lukashenko's Kremlin patrons has raised hopes among the opposition that this could weaken the president's grip on power.

"In 2007, the economic situation will get significantly worse ... and people will turn to the opposition," Vintsuk Vyachorka, leader of the opposition Belarusian People's Front, told The Associated Press this week.

Just a few hours after Vyachorka made his comments, he was arrested for taking part in Wednesday's rally.

There were no reports of progress on the gas question from the Putin-Lukashenko meeting.

However, Putin appeared to encourage Lukashenko to ease pressure on the opposition.

"It was pleasant for me to hear that you're in a mood for constructive work with all forces," Putin said, according to the ITAR-Tass news agency.

Although the Kremlin has supported Lukashenko and Russian officials have stated they regarded the March elections as valid, Russia and Belarus have frequently bickered over terms of their union agreement.

Russia's support of Lukashenko is likely to be a top issue of discussion at this summer's summit in St. Petersburg of leaders of the Group of Eight, which includes the United States, Germany and other countries that have harshly criticized the Belarusian leader.

Associated Press correspondent Jim Heintz in Moscow contributed to this report.

Source:

http://www.twincities.com/mld/twincities/news/breaking_news/14453845.htm