BELARUS NEWS AND ANALYSIS

DATE:

02/04/2006

West should stop doing business with Lukashenko

By Sergei Korol

From Mr Sergei Korol.

Sir, Sadly, Stefan Wagstyl ("A little democracy need not hinder a popular dictator", March 25/26) is right about the proof offered in Belarus that there is nothing inevitable about the coming of democracy to the former Soviet Union. But I certainly hope the west proves Alexander Lukashenko wrong in his dismissal of possible economic sanctions.

Contrary to popular belief, Belarus' economy, whose dominating state-owned part is personally managed by Mr Lukashenko, is very much dependent on exports to the European Union. According to official figures as of August 2005, Russia's share of Belarusian exports was 36 per cent and the EU's 43 per cent, led by the buyers of refined petroleum in the UK and Netherlands.

Refining and reselling of Russian crude is now the primary driver of the Belarusian economy. Thanks to a special arrangement with Russia, the Belarusian state oil conglomerate purchases oil at $27 per barrel and resells it at the world price of over $60.

This yields almost $2bn a year of pure profit that accrues directly to Mr Lukashenko's oppressive state and is used to maintain the famed "economic stability", the regime's main claim to legitimacy. It is also used to train and pay the black-clad men who beat the demonstrators on March 25.

By comparison, western aid to the opposition amounts to barely $30m a year. The man whose domestic and foreign policies are openly anti-western should not be allowed to profiteer from trade with the EU.

In addition to publicly denouncing the dictator, the west should stop doing business with him. This would be logical and effective, showing people in Belarus that antagonising one's main trading partner is bad for economic stability.

Sergei Korol,

Wilmington, DE 19806, US

Source:

http://news.ft.com/cms/s/06ec67ce-c11b-11da-9419-0000779e2340.html

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