BELARUS NEWS AND ANALYSIS
DATE:
23/04/2009
Belarus To Continue Balanced Policy Between Eu, Russia: European Analyst
Azerbaijan, Baku, April 22 /Trend News, E. Ostapenko/ Belarus government's policy of balance between Russia and the European Union will last for a long period of time. However attraction by Europe is unavoidable in a long-term perspective, senior European analyst on Belarus policy Arkady Moshes said.
"Balancing of the entire region specifically of Belarus between Russia and the European Union will continue. But the influence of gravitational European center [:] will be felt more in historical perspective. This is unambiguous," Finland-based International Relations Institute Russian Program Director Moshes told Trend News over telephone from Helsinki.
Russia's traditional ally Belarus tries to keep balance between Moscow and Brussels following the energy conflict with Russia in late 2006-early 2007 which led to a sharp rise in energy prices.
Belarus President Alexander Lukashenko, who did not visit to the EU for more than a decade, was invited to attend the EU summit in Prague to be held on May 7 last Friday. The President will officially approve EU Eastern Partnership program. Belarus is a part of this program along with five former soviet countries which includes Moldova, Ukraine, Azerbaijan, Georgia and Armenia. The program calls for free trade zone, easing visa regime and allocating extra financing for program's members.
The sharp choice in favor of either side will not take place any time soon, Moshes said.
"We will witness the tactics of delaying time [by Belarus parliament] whether to recognize independence of Abkhazia and South Ossetia or not for a long period of time. I think recognition is less likely to take place," Moshes said.
Belarus is the only CIS country who openly supported Russia's large scale military intervention in Georgia that took place after Tbilisi's efforts to re-exercise control over South Ossetia. In September, Minsk promised to consider recognition of the two autonomies in the parliament. But this has not happened yet. Besides Russia, only Nicaragua has recognized independence of Abkhazia and South Ossetia.
Many European politicians said recognition of former Georgian regions can undermine Minsk-Brussels ties.
Russia and Europe will approach Lukashenko's balanced policy pragmatically as the West has concluded that policy of sanctions, despite certain results, are not appropriate today, Moshes said.
"By cooperating with the regime, much can be achieved in the context of internal liberalization of country's political system than sanctions. I think the European Union has made its choice," he said.
The European Union restored contacts severed in March 2006 with Belarus President following presidential election in Belarus. At that time EU accused Lukashenko and some Belarus officials "of violating international electoral standards, attack on civil society and democratic opposition."
The EU imposed personal sanctions against Lukashenko and Belarus leaders responsible for violation of international electoral standards. In November 2008, the EU Council lifted a ban for Belarus President and several officials' entrance to the EU member states.
Not the policy of sanctions, but cooperation between the EU and Belarus will help to normalize ties both in regional policy and in bilateral format. The EU "realizes it very well", Moshes said.
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