BELARUS NEWS AND ANALYSIS

DATE:

15/05/2006

EU to deal fresh psychological blow to Belarus regime

by Andrew Rettman

EUOBSERVER / BRUSSELS - The EU's decision to seize the foreign assets of Belarus politicians, due as early as 18 May, will be a purely symbolic act designed to ratchet up political pressure on the Minsk regime.

"The discussions on the asset freeze have been going on for months. So if they had any money in the EU, it would be strange if they had not moved it yet. It's another strong political signal," an EU diplomat told EUobserver on Monday (15 May).

"The decision to seize assets would be a potent symbolic act that would also prevent these people from putting money into the EU in future," a commission spokeswoman indicated.

FT Deutschland broke on Monday morning news of the decision which follows up an EU visa ban on 37 Belarus politicians, including president Alexander Lukashenko, made last month.

The commission did not deny the FT Deutschland story, with Brussels' silence lending it strong credence, and with EU diplomats saying the decision could be formally announced on the margins of an 18 May meeting of EU education and culture ministers.

The series of sanctions come after OSCE-deemed fake presidential elections on 19 March and the subsequent arrests of opposition leaders Alexander Milinkevich (released last week) and Alexander Kazulin.

Belarusian opposition actvists welcomed the reports, saying the April visa ban has already damaged president Lukashenko's credibility in the eyes of ordinary people.

"It's one of the most effective measures the EU has put in place so far," Office for Democratic Belarus director Olga Stuzhinskaya indicated.

But a Belarusian diplomat poured scorn on the move, saying "This decision, if it is taken, will be a soap bubble. It would make sense only if there were assets to freeze."

"It shows the lack of any genuine political will on the part of the EU to engage in political relations with Belarus."

Where's the money?

Reliable information on how much money the Belarusian regime has in private accounts and where the cash is being held is hard to come by, with senior US state department officials in April saying "major banking centres" have been reluctant to play ball with the initiative.

Switzerland is "following the situation closley" a Swiss diplomat told EUobserver but has "no obligation" to follow the EU line.

"We are also considering an asset freeze [on certain Belarusian persons] but we have not made a decision yet," the contact stated.

The US state department recently disclosed intelligence reports that president Lukashenko has "at least" $1 billion salted away for his own use, while up to 100 members of his nomenklatura are dollar millionaires.

The US report also spoke of Belarusian diplomats ferrying "suitcases full of cash" out of Belgrade before the fall of president Slobodan Milosevic in 2000.

Gas problems add to Minsk tension

The extra psychological pressure on Minsk comes at a time when Moscow's Gazprom is threatening to triple in 2007 gas prices to the economically vulnerable Lukashenko regime, and amid growing self-confidence in the country's opposition movement.

Russian authorities say the gas hike is designed to conform with World Trade Organisation rules on equal treatment of trade partners, but several western analysts see it as a way to bully Minsk into political union with Moscow.

"If Belarus wants gas at Russian internal prices, it should join Russia," a Kremlin insider said over the weekend, Polish and Russian media report.

Source:

http://euobserver.com/9/21597

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