BELARUS NEWS AND ANALYSIS

DATE:

19/05/2006

US, Russia, Belarus: Politics of democracy

By Federico Bordonaro for ISN Security Watch (19/05/06)

After US Vice President Dick Cheney's speech on 4 May in the Lithuanian capital, Vilnius, during the Community of Democratic Choice's third meeting, Russian media were writing about the beginning of a "new Cold War". Then last week, Russian President Vladimir Putin's state-of-the-nation speech laid out Russia's ambitious global role and highlighted plans to enhance its strategic military capabilities in what many observers say was a direct response to reprimands from Cheney.

Cheney sharply criticized what he referred to as Russia's attempt to blackmail foreign policy with natural gas supplies and reprimanded Moscow for "unfairly restricting" civil rights.

US-Russian tensions have not only brought much international attention to the Community of Democratic Choice, but have re-ignited the political battle over Belarus and the struggle for influence in Eastern Europe.

The Vilnius Summit, the result of a joint Ukrainian-Georgian initiative, brought together nine former Soviet republics. And Russian observers are interpreting Cheney's blunt speech at this particular forum as US interference in Moscow's vital political and economic areas. In fact, some Russian media have even interpreted Cheney's words as a tool to undermine the Commonwealth of Independent States (CIS), which still unites 12 former Soviet republics, though Georgia is considering the consequences of withdrawing from the commonwealth.

The Community of Democratic Choice

The presidents of Ukraine, Georgia, Poland, and Lithuania launched the new regional organization at a meeting in the Crimea in August last year, where they decided to create "an alternative Commonwealth of Independent States (CIS) without Russia". Georgian President Mikhail Saakashvili and Ukrainian President Viktor Yushchenko proposed the creation of a Community of Democratic Choice in accordance with the principles of the Community of Democracies - an informal US-backed forum launched in 1999 to promote liberal goals such as support for civil society, free and fair elections, independent judiciary, transparency, and accountability of governance.

The US had already attempted to establish a similar pro-Western regional organization linking the Black Sea region with Central Asia, known as GUUAM (Georgia, Ukraine, Uzbekistan, Azerbaijan, and Moldova) in the 1990s. However, the project lacked both political stability and ideological orientations. Moreover, the Uzbek decision in 2005 to evict the US from its military bases there and to enhance strategic cooperation with China and Russia further weakened GUUAM.

On the contrary, should a Lithuanian-Polish axis strengthen its ties with a Ukrainian-Georgian combine, a new alignment would see the light - and one that would share common security concerns, consistent energy routes, and a pro-Western liberal ideology.

In addition, Polish Prime Minister Marek Belka announced in August last year the launch of a working group with Ukraine, Lithuania, and Latvia to coordinate their policy towards Belarus. He also discussed with Polish political leaders the idea of opening a radio station to broadcast into Belarus in support of pro-democracy groups.

That and the goals outlined by the new Commonwealth of Democratic Choice exacerbated growing political tensions between Poland and Belarus. Furthermore, the US-Russia geopolitical rivalry in Eastern Europe, the South Caucasus, and Central Asia served to increase regional competition between Warsaw and Minsk. And Belka's August proposal echoed the Bush administration's stance against Belarusian President Aleksandar Lukashenko and appeared as a continuation of the US-inspired tactics implemented by pro-Western groups during the "Orange Revolution" in Kiev.

Belarus: a Russian wedge in a pro-Western Eastern Europe

With Viktor Yushchenko's success in the dramatic December 2004 Ukrainian elections, Kiev took a clear pro-US stance. As a consequence, the creation of an integrated area encompassing the regions between the Baltic and the Black Sea finally became possible. Such a project was first evoked in the early 1990s, but during the last decade, Belarus remained a very pro-Russian regional actor under Lukashenko's rule, while Moscow maintained significant influence in Ukraine.

The new Ukrainian course changed the regional context, creating a geopolitical continuum from the Baltics to the Black Sea, for both Georgia and the Baltic States already shared some key security concerns with Poland and the Central European countries. In particular, such concerns included the fear of a resurgent Russia in both economic and strategic affairs. Thus, the Eastern European nations' new elites actively pursued a transatlantic security guarantee (EU plus NATO), while fostering a progressively enhanced integration into the Euro-Atlantic political and financial structures.

New pro-Western elites in Eastern Europe consider Lukashenko's rule in Belarus their most serious regional political problem. Warsaw and its Baltic allies believe the integration of Belarus and Ukraine into Western European markets and institutions is a necessary step to create an integrated economic area - not least because such a re-orientation of the two former Soviet republics would help the them to end Moscow's grip on strategic energy routes in Eastern Europe.

Moreover, Poland is steadfastly trying to build regional alliances to counter the recent strengthening of Russo-German energy cooperation, which has culminated in a massive gas pipeline project that will transport Russian natural gas to Germany via the Baltic Sea - thus bypassing Poland. The news of this project reinforced Warsaw's perception of Moscow using energy supplies to blackmail its neighbors.

Therefore, after successfully backing the pro-Western movements in Ukraine, Warsaw is eager to fully cooperate with Washington in an effort to promote a regime change in Minsk. Such a goal is considered by many observers to be legitimate interference because of Lukashenko's authoritarian rule, labeled as "Europe's last dictatorship" by US Secretary of State Condoleezza Rice and other top US officials. Needless to say, it is perceived as an unacceptable attempt to foment a revolution by both Minsk and Moscow.

"Russia's reaction to Cheney's Vilnius speech, as well as Moscow and Minsk's hostility toward a US-backed promotion of democratic change in Belarus, were entirely predictable," Clara Castelli, professor of Eastern European History at Rome's University, told ISN Security Watch.

"The Russians believe that Washington is creating a sort of anti-Russian cordon sanitaire by using Eastern European countries and former Soviet republics," she explained, "and they furiously reacted against Ukraine's and Georgia's decision to quit the Commonwealth of Independent States."

Nowadays, the Italian professor said, "Moscow sees the EU and NATO's enlargement processes as being directed against Russia's security zone and historical core."

Kiev and Tbilisi's new pro-Western chance, Castelli believes, is the key to understanding what many call a "new Cold War". Especially after it became clear that Yushchenko would do everything possible to quickly integrate Ukraine into NATO, Russia's grip on Belarus tightened, despite the fact that Putin is "not keen on Lukashenko".

She said Russia was confident it could successfully counter Western attempts to undermine Lukashenko's rule in Belarus "because of structural reasons".

"First, Minsk is heavily dependant on the Russian economy, since Belarusian GDP growth is largely determined by Russian demand, which is not easy to replace. Second, Belarus cannot cope with any possible cut in Russian gas supplies. Third, under Lukashenko's rule, Belarus' national identity has not been strengthened: Even the Russian language was de facto favored by Minsk over Belarusian. Thus, the ruling class and a large majority of the Belarusian population have no interest in a pro-Western turn," she said.

US- and EU-backed attempts to foster a "color revolution" in Belarus "have little chance to succeed", the Italian scholar maintained, although she recalled that following the Polish initiative, "the EU is backing the project of a television chain that is supposed to introduce information pluralism in the country".

The project, Castelli said, would offer daily news services in Russian and Belarusian in an effort to promote mutual understanding between Belarusians and their neighbors.

Castelli said Russia's rigid stance on Belarus would be coupled by Moscow's attempts to prevent Ukraine from fully integrating into Western structures: "In fact, Ukraine's economy is also very dependent upon Russia, as Ukrainian goods have hardly any outlet other than the Russian market. Moreover, many Ukrainian citizens work in the Russian federation thanks to a friendly visa-regime. Should Moscow drastically change such rules, many Ukrainian workers would immediately experience unemployment."

With regards to the recently born Community of Democratic Choice, Castelli said such a "Baltic to the Black Sea project" was hardly new in history. In fact, it suggests a "modern re-making of the Polish-Lithuanian power", which dominated most of Central and Eastern Europe by the end of the 15th Century - although today's Polish ambitions are of course embedded into the EU and NATO.

"The attempt to control the Eastern European area has always been a central issue in the long geopolitical rivalry between Russia and Western powers," she concluded.

In the meantime, the US is showing a relentless determination to expand NATO to Ukraine and to promote regime change in Belarus.

However, Lukashenko and his ruling elite appear still capable of successfully countering Western moves, while Russia's attempts to recover its influence in Eastern Europe will probably encourage Moscow to maintain its support for Minsk's present government.

Federico Bordonaro, based in Italy, is an analyst of international relations and geopolitics with the Power and Interest News Report (PINR) and Strategic-Road.com. He is an expert on the new structure of the international system after the Cold War, the European integration process, security and defense issues, and political realism.

Source:

http://www.isn.ethz.ch/news/sw/details.cfm?id=15914