BELARUS NEWS AND ANALYSIS
DATE:
05/06/2008
Running for Their Lives
BBC Monitoring
The Belarusian opposition's new strategy for the coming parliamentary elections could be just what Lukashenka needs.
This article, "Cooler List: Opposition to Run for Parliament on a Single List," by Yanka Hryl, was posted on the Belarusian newspaper BelGazeta's website on 26 May:
Once the rather obscure Epoch of Dialogue [among the Belarusian democratic forces] in Belarusian politics came to the end, the Epoch of the Single List began: the United Democratic Forces will run in the [September] election to the National Assembly's House of Representatives on a single list. The opposition either boycotted or lost all the previous elections. The 2008 election could be a pleasant exception: Europe wants to see at least a few members of the United Democratic Forces making it to the assembly. So do the authorities.
Having drawn a bold line under the Epoch of Dialogue, European Union Commissioner for External Relations Benita Ferrero-Waldner prophetically said [in a letter to opposition leader Alyaksandr Milinkevich]: "To start a fully-fledged partnership between Belarus and the EU, other steps towards democratization, the observance of human rights and rule of law are needed. From this point of view, the conduct of the 2008 parliamentary election will be a decisive point." Hence the single list.
A legitimate chance to inform the population during the election campaign is the only realistic goal for the United Democratic Forces' standing in the election. The authorities' only realistic goal is to legitimize themselves in the eyes of the EU by allowing a few candidates from either true or quasi-opposition to be elected to the National Assembly's House of Representatives.
[Passage omitted: The opposition is compared to a cooler which is essential to the functioning of a computer.]
THE UNDERSIGNED
The majority of opposition leaders have rejected the idea of boycotting the election promoted by Charter 97 and the Young Front. Yet, they reserved the right to withdraw their candidates from the single list several days before the vote.
The single list is a principle and not a dogma. In early April, the steering committee of the unregistered Belarusian Christian Democracy party decided to join the single list; those who were compiling it took a strictly Belarusian decision, both in terms of its form and content: "The list cannot be revised but it can be corrected."
As soon as the Young Front said that it would boycott the election, it was announced that its quota on the list was vacant. It transpired later that all three representatives of Young Front (two in Minsk and one in Masty) planned to run as independent candidates. As always, [opposition leader] Mikalay Statkevich is going to run for parliament alongside other contenders, but keeping a slight distance from them. He promised to compile a separate list of 60 candidates representing the European Coalition, although at least two coalition members have been boycotting the election. One way or the other, Belarusian political science is the science of exceptions from the rule.
So far, the Nasha Niva newspaper is the one that's published a more or less comprehensive single list. The first thing that strikes you is the fact that most democratic leaders are from Minsk. Anatol Lyabedzka [leader of the United Civic Party] is planning to run in the Sukharawski constituency, Syarhey Kalyakin [leader of the Party of Communists of Belarus] in the Kolasawski, Vintsuk Vyachorka [of the Belarusian People's Front] in the Uskhodni and Stanislaw Bogdankevich in the Chkalawski constituency. Almost all more or less recognizable representatives of the Belarusian People's Front (Ales Mikhalevich, Alyaksey Yanukevich and Valyantsina Svyatskaya), the United Civic Party (Alyaksandr Dabravolski, Valyantsina Palevikova and Lyudzmila Hraznova), human rights activist Ihar Rynkevich, trade union leader Alyaksandr Bukhvostaw and others are planning to run in Minsk. Volha Kazulina [daughter of jailed opposition figure Alyaksandr Kazulin] is planning to stand for election in the Frunzenski constituency in Minsk, too. All in all, according to Nasha Niva, "candidates from the Belarusian People's Front prevail in Minsk, Social Democrats in Brest and the Party of Communists of Belarus in Homel." So the principle of inter-party geographic pluralism has been observed on the single list.
Unfortunately, positive things end here. As Syarhey Kalyakin said, "the special services are looking into the list of 110 candidates of the united opposition. And I believe that the authorities can designate someone from the list to represent the opposition in parliament. Of course, those will not be our strongest candidates. But this is how the authorities can try to legitimize the election." This sounds like praise for the special services, not the opposition's single list.
HAND-PICKED OPPOSITION
Belarusian President Alyaksandr Lukashenka said in one of his recent interviews with Reuters: "To be honest, I would like people to back a few opposition candidates, so that you stop accusing us of the absence of opposition in parliament. But this is up to [the] people : My task is to ensure a normal voting process." Anyway, "a few opposition MPs will not hurt. They will represent the minority."
There is another problem though, and Lukashenka warned Reuters, the United Democratic Forces and the people of Belarus about it: "I am afraid that they [the opposition] will not make it to parliament. Instead of working with the people, our opposition travel to the U.S.A. and the U.K. to ask for money. The opposition should work with our citizens."
[Passage omitted: As members of official delegations, opposition MPs will have a chance to travel to Iran or Venezuela.]
For the authorities, the infiltration of a small group of opposition representatives into the National Assembly's House of Representatives is less dangerous than, for instance, the creation of a malignant tumor of doubting MPs inside parliament, similar to the former "Republic" group of deputies. Putting forward draft laws that are doomed to be killed, proudly leaving the chamber out of protest, saying "no" when all the rest are saying "yes" and speaking in interviews - this is all the Belarusian parliamentary opposition will be allowed to do.
There is one thing, though. The difference between the failed 2006 Belarusian "jeans revolution" [post-election opposition protests in Minsk] and similar events in Belarus was that the opposition had no support among the authorities, not even on the level of a single policeman. If representatives of the opposition make it to the National Assembly's House of Representatives, the opposition will get a chance to try its luck with the "jeans revolution" projects during the 2011 presidential election.
This is why the authorities will prefer a scenario with only hand-picked opposition activists making it to parliament. First, these should be not more or less recognizable party leaders but some low-key figures. Second, they should represent competing structures, such as the United Democratic Forces, the European Coalition and one or two humanitarians who have been serving society their entire life. Third, there should be some very odd guys, freaks or losers to put it plainly, whose motivation will seem unclear and alien to voters.
And then, asked by a European visitor "What about your parliamentary opposition?" the host will say: "They are struggling! Yesterday they organized a flash mob at a canteen while eating mashed potatoes. Today, instead of attending a plenary meeting, they had a dictation in a toilet. Tomorrow they will use obscene language and urinate outside the Russian Embassy and at the end of the session they will go on their traditional hunger strike : Well, we understand. We are tolerant and transparent indeed. We are in the center of Europe. By the way, what did you say about loans and preferences?"
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