BELARUS NEWS AND ANALYSIS

DATE:

18/06/2009

From milk to missiles

Sergei Balashov

The already tense milk war with Minsk got worse on Sunday, when the mercurial Belarussian president, Alexander Lukashenko, failed to turn up for a security summit in Moscow.

The CSTO, a Russian-dominated alliance comprised of seven former Soviet states, mostly from Central Asia, planned to set up joint rapid-reaction forces to combat amid what President Dmitry Medvedev called a "very high conflict potential accumulated within the CSTO territory."

Russia is supposed to provide half the manpower for the forces, which would be deployed on Russian territory. These threats presumably come from Afghanistan, with its terrorism and drug traffic, and Georgia, as further military conflicts there are not ruled out and no non-aggression pact between Russia and Georgia is yet in place. That, however, will have to be done without a sulky Belarus, which stayed at home, signed nothing and refused to participate at all.

For Belarus the alliance with Russia is more about the economy, while Russia has more of a political interest in its Western neighbour.

The row between Russia and Belarus seems to have no end. The latest round started with Finance Minister Alexei Kudrin predicting a grim future for the Belarusian economy while Russia displayed an unwillingness to lend Lukashenko dollars rather than roubles.

Lukashenko responded by attacking Kudrin and the Russian government, and even taking a thinly veiled shot at Prime Minister Vladimir Putin, while instructing his government to look for allies elsewhere.

The Belarussian leader is known for trying to get more economic benefits out of Russia for his country. Belarus exists in a state of self-imposed isolation from Europe and has faced heavy criticism for its lack of democracy and the authoritarian style of its government. Russian protection and economic cooperation is widely seen as vital to the survival of Lukashenko's regime.

But now things may have gone too far, with some media saying that Moscow is ready to start a new gas row with Minsk.

Belarus was also supposed to assume the presidency of the CSTO at the summit. Due to the absence of Belarus, Russia had to assume the presidency instead. Kommersant quoted a source "close to the Russian government" as saying that Russia would stick to its guns "until the end", and that any attempts to put pressure on Moscow wouldn't work.

Some experts said both countries were playing a dangerous game of chicken, which could backfire badly.

"Russia's short-sightedness is really surprising," said Alexei Mukhin, the general director of the Centre of Political Information. "We are seeing the same scenario repeated over and over again, first in Georgia and Ukraine and now in Belarus. ... First there are harsh political statements followed by import bans, and finally these economic sanctions turn into a political standoff. If Russia could be a little less arrogant it would help the situation considerably."

Lukashenko could either make peace with Russia, or rely on international financial institutions for help. But turning to the West could lead to Belarus' sovereignty, and Lukashenko's political influence, being diminished.

"The EU made it clear that they would not aid Lukashenko, while the World Bank would be happy to do that," said Mukhin. "The Belarussian economy would become addicted to foreign aid and then we wouldn't be talking about any sovereignty. It's also very likely that Lukashenko's tenure could then slowly come to its end."

Source:

http://www.mnweekly.ru/comment/20090618/55380530.html

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