BELARUS NEWS AND ANALYSIS

DATE:

Wednesday 20 July 2005

Effective policy towards Belarus - A challenge for the enlarged EU

Published: 09:44 | Updated: 13:14

In Short:

This paper, authored by Grzegorz Gromadzki, Vitali Silitski and Lubos Vesely and published by the Stefan Batory Foundation, evaluates the prospects of EU-Belarus relations.

1. Justification

The specific position of Belarus in Europe

Belarus is the last remaining dictatorship in Europe in which basic European values, such as democracy, human rights and the freedom of the media, are repeatedly violated. This isolation is further entrenched by a lack of communication and co-operation with the EU: Belarus is the only Eastern European country that does not have a PCA (Partnership and Co-operation Agreement) with the EU; it is the only European country that doesn't belong to the Council of Europe. Yet the importance of dealing with the issue of Belarus is now starkly apparent. Belarus is one of the few countries bordering the EU to the East after its enlargement in 2004, with more than 1000km of shared borderland, and three member countries (Latvia, Lithuania and Poland) as its neighbours. Furthermore, Belarus is an important transit country for Russian gas and crude oil on its way to the EU.

In the future, we can expect to witness new repressions by Europe's last dictator and further deterioration of the situation in the coming months. Lukashenko will do everything in his power to oppress the political opposition, NGOs and the media in order to ensure the extension of his rule following the presidential elections scheduled for autumn 2006. The first step towards this was taken during the falsified referendum in October 2004 in which Lukashenko illegally extended his term of presidency. A Lukashenko presidency after 2006 will mean the conservation and intensification of his rule and the establishment of a strong and dangerous dictatorship along EU borders.

There are contradictory opinions concerning the situation in Belarus. On one hand, both the US and the EU condemned the Belarusian referendum and the elections in autumn 2004, whilst the Russian position was one of acceptance. The Russian Ministry of Foreign Affairs declared the referendum transparent and stated that it reflected the will of the Belarusian people - yet another example of Russia's lack of interest in the democratization of Belarus.

As experience from previous years has shown, co-operation with Lukashenko's regime is and will be, for the foreseeable future, impossible. Despite the EU's repeated declarations of their desire for a democratic Belarus, EU policy has failed. Consequently, the EU must be prepared to employ new tactics and to co-operate directly with non-governmental actors, who are frequently illegal in Belarus. The non-state sector should now become the main partner of the EU and the main beneficiary of EU money (rather than the state which at present receives the majority of resources).

Politicians, experts and journalists in the EU very often identify Lukashenko's anti-western and pro-Russian official policy with the opinions of Belarusian society. The reality, however, is different. Despite anti-western, anti-European official propaganda, more than 50 percent of Belarusians support close co-operation with the EU {whilst simultaneously, more than 50 percent are also in favour of closer relations with Russia). Closer relations with Europe, perhaps even the integration of Belarus into the EU, should remain an open question due to the support evident for such policy in a large part of Belarusian society.

The Orange Revolution in Ukraine showed that democracy can be built in eastern European countries by social movements and that the new Ukrainian authorities are interested in European integration. A similar phenomenon can happen in Belarus; and the new Belarusian authorities could follow the path of the Ukraine. The EU should be prepared for this situation.

To read the full text of the paper, visit the Stefan Batory Foundation website.

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Source:

http://www.euractiv.com/Article?tcmuri=tcm:29-142750-16&type=Analysis