BELARUS NEWS AND ANALYSIS

DATE:

07.27.05, 6:00 AM ET

Putin, Lukashenka Talk Union, Again

Oxford Analytica

Presidents Vladimir Putin and Alyaksandr Lukashenka held talks near Moscow on July 22-their sixth meeting since the beginning of the year. The wave of political revolutions in the former Soviet Union has solidified the ties between the two leaders. However, their joint interest in averting the possibility of regime change has not eliminated all tensions in bilateral relations.

Russia has resumed its open and unqualified support for President Alyaksandr Lukashenka's regime in Belarus. However, Lukashenka has won back the Kremlin's support mostly due to events elsewhere in the post-Soviet area, and Russia's increasing propensity to support nondemocratic regimes as bulwarks against the expansion of Western influence in Eurasia. He managed to avoid any significant concessions on the contentious issues in bilateral relations.

Since the beginning of the year, the Kremlin has sought to return to some of these issues. Using its political and economic support for Lukashenka's regime as a bargaining chip, it has urged Lukashenka to give the go-ahead for the most important integration projects, notably the adoption of a Constitutional Act that would establish a presidency for the Russia-Belarus Union. The topic resurfaced in last week's meeting as Russia's top priority in bilateral relations, alongside several other traditional issues of disagreement, such as introduction of the single currency. Nevertheless, the latest talks ended with no concrete agreements, and it appears that Lukashenka again managed to postpone serious integration moves, and continues successfully to reduce integration to a one-way flow of economic and political support in exchange for little of substance.

Putin's possible desire to extend his stay in power after his second term expires in 2008 may motivate Russia's strong push for the adoption of the Constitutional Act. Putin has repeatedly denied any intention to amend Russia's constitution to allow himself a new term as Russian president. The creation of the Russia-Belarus Union could allow him to move into the presidency of the new state. In exchange, Lukashenka would be granted the vice presidency in the new union. This bargain might also resolve Lukashenka's long-term insecurity in office. Belarus is a target of the current U.S. administration's ambitious agenda of "spreading freedom" throughout the world. Washington's ability to pursue regime change in Belarus is currently minimal. Nevertheless, Lukashenka is aware that U.S. and, more broadly, Western pressure is likely to continue beyond 2006. Therefore, he needs more solid guarantees of his long-term political survival, which may eventually make him more cooperative with the Kremlin.

However, there must be serious doubts whether Putin will succeed in making Lukashenka agree to the Union project:

* The new Union formula suits Putin's ambitions far more than Lukashenka's. If it is finalized, Lukashenka would become just another politician in Russia under Kremlin control.

* Lukashenka will be aware that Russia is unlikely to abandon support for him completely if he chooses not to cooperate, as the Kremlin will not want to risk "losing" Belarus in the current geopolitical climate.

In addition, the Union project seems a complex option for Putin. There are concerns in Moscow over the economic costs of full unification with Belarus. If Putin is indeed keen to remain in power, the option of amending the Russian constitution to allow him a new run would not be unduly complicated technically and would cost only some political capital domestically.

With his ability to secure his own re-election in 2006 almost guaranteed, Lukashenka is more likely to wait until Putin makes up his mind about his own political future after 2008. However, Lukashenka will still have the option of making small, gradual concessions, such as allowing partial access of Russian companies to Belarusian assets or the introduction of the Russian rouble in Belarus, rather than completely signing off independence and his ultimate political security.

Russia-Belarus relations are set to stagnate in their current configuration for the near future. While Lukashenka's resistance to Kremlin pressure for a deeper integration will not win him any favors in Moscow, Russia cannot risk responding to his defiance with policies that would eventually undermine his power and risk his succession by a pro-Western regime.

Source:

http://www.forbes.com/business/2005/07/27/putin-lukashenka-talks-cx_0727oxan_russiabelarus.html


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