BELARUS NEWS AND ANALYSIS

DATE:

08/08/2006

Alone on the Campaign Trail

// Alexander Lukashenko chooses his competition

The Belarusian Central Elections Commission yesterday released the results of the signature gathering for presidential candidates yesterday. Only five initiative groups presented petitions to territorial elections commissions and there are only likely to be four candidates for president in the upcoming race. No one will be able to launch an adequate campaign except President Alexander Lukashenko, who is a ceaseless presence on the television screen. His competitors can begin campaigning only one month before the election.

A Candidate Is Measured by His Signatures

The announcement of the results of the signature gathering for presidential candidates was somehow reminiscent of the announcement of presidential election results. Secretary of the Belarusian Central Elections Commission Nikolay Lozovik ceremonially that current Belarusian President Alexander Lukashenko leads by the number of supporters. His initiative group gathered 1,905,637 signatures, 19 times more than needed. Alexander Milinkevich, the candidate from the united opposition, who considers himself Lukashenko's main opponent, produced ten times fewer, 198,798 signatures. The opposition headquarters insists that there were over 200,000 signatures gathered, however.

The necessary number of signatures was gathered, even with some in reserve, by form rector of Belarusian State University Alexander Kozulin (158,000) and leader of the Liberal Democratic Party Sergey Gaidukevich (150,000). The initiative group for former general Valery Frolov only gathered 58,000. The necessary number is 100,000, so Frolov will most likely fade into the distance at this point. He has already announced that he will withdraw his candidacy in favor of any "worthy democrat" registered as a presidential candidate.

Eight people planed to run for president originally. Three of them did not make it to the end of the signature gathering process. Former president of the Belarusian Academy of Sciences Alexander Voitovich; former parliamentarian Sergey Skrebets, who is now under arrest for suspicion of a number of crimes, and political emigrant Zenon Poznyak, leader of the Belarusian People's Front, a conservative Christian party, relinquished their presidential ambitions after they were unable to gather the required 100,000 signatures.

Chairman of the Belarusian Central Elections Commission Lidia Ermoshina boasted that "this stage of the election campaign has been completed calmly and without conflict... The numbers may change since, after verification, the confirmed number of signatures may be smaller" If their signatures are verified, there will be four candidates four candidates: Lukashenko, Milinkevich, Kozulin and Gaidukevich. Gaidukevich ran against Lukashenko in the 2001 elections, where he received about 2 percent of the vote. His main function will be to protect Lukashenko against a conspiracy by the two other candidates. Even if they drop out of the race, he will see to it that Lukashenko does not run unopposed.

In spite of the fact that the election is only a little more than two months away, the campaigning has not begun yet under law. After the signatures are turned in, they are verified by the territorial election commission for three weeks and will be forwarded to the Central Elections Commission on February 11. It will make its decision on the registration of the candidates by February 21. Only then can campaigning begin legally. The election is March 19. Considering that Lukashenko has been shown on television at all times for several years already, and his opponents are practically unknown to the public, the month-long campaign is practically senseless.

A President beyond Competition

In the last few days, Belarusian media have been carrying the information that the number of candidates may be reduced by united opposition candidate Milinkevich. Citing sources in the election commission, the Belarusian press is writing that the commission may simply not register him.

Milinkevich has been spending a lot of time in Europe lately, taking part in international forums, where he unfailingly harshly criticizes the Belarusian authorities. Last week, for instance, he visited Strasbourg, where he met with Polish President Lech Kaczynski and demanded that new sanctions be imposed on the current authorities in Belarus. An article was added to the Belarusian Criminal Code making "discreditation of the republic" a crime. Under the law, any citizen knowingly providing a foreign state or organization with false information about the political, economic, military or foreign relations conditions of Belarus may be punished by imprisonment of one and a half to two years. Milinkevich has broken that law more than once.

Rumors of Milinkevich's possible exclusion from the race have not gone unnoticed at the headquarters of his competitor Kozulin, leader of the social-democratic party Gramada. Last Friday, Kozulin suggested to the single opposition candidate that they begin negotiations on the organization of a joint campaign of democratic forces, in case one of them is disqualified. Mechislav Grib, head of Kozulin's campaign headquarters, told Kommersant that Milinkevich's team has yet to respond to that suggestion. "They have ten parties in their coalition. Now they have supposedly set up a commission and they are thinking together about whether or not to agree," he said.

Milinkevich supporters are skeptical of the offer from the competing democrat. "It would be very beneficial for Kozulin," commented a source in the united opposition headquarters. "Our rating is incomparably higher." Milinkevich supporters say that a Gallup Media poll found that their candidate has 24.9-percent popular support, while Kozulin has 2.9 percent.

Milinkevich press secretary Alexander Mozheiko told the Kommersant correspondent that rumors of his disqualification have been circulating for a long time. "The authorities are trying to choose a more convenient and harmless competitor and they will do anything so that our candidate did not look like an opposition leader in the eyes of the public," he said. According to Mozheiko, the presidential administration long ago decided on the results of the upcoming elections. "They will take 70 percent for themselves, and divide the rest so that Gaidukevich comes in second, and Kozulin third," he continued. "It follows that we will become outsiders."

Milinkevich himself allows that he may not be registered. "I don't think the decision not to register me van be based on law," he told Kommersant. "That decision is very possible, but it will be technical, not political." At the Milinkevich headquarters, they said that they are prepared for various scenarios. "If necessary, we will take to the square," a spokesman said.

It is unlikely that they will disqualify Milinkevich, however. In order to apply the article "On Discreditation of the Republic," a lawsuit has to be filed, and that would be difficult to do before March 19. Also, it is not likely that Minsk considers him a serious enough opponent to take that measure.

Appearing on television recently, Lukashenko gave his personal analysis of the chances of the competition, explaining why they have no chances. First, in his opinion, it is because they are disunited. "They have not made taking power their goal. It's their business. If new opposition tendencies appear, they try to eliminate it, to wipe it out. It's their competitor," he explained. Second, the opposition, in the president's observation, cannot campaign in Belarus. "Take the recent acts of the opposition today. Where do they work? In Brussels, Warsaw, Vilnius, Kiev, to some extent in Moscow. In the West they shout, Impose sanctions on Belarus.' And they think they will get votes?" he asked. The weakness of the opposition allows him not to campaign at all, Lukashenko said. "Therefore, I do not especially strain myself on the campaign trail to show how good I am."

by Vadim Dovnar, Minsk; Mikhail Zygar, Vladimir Solovyev

Source:

http://www.kommersant.com/tree.asp?rubric=2&node=12&doc_id=645042