BELARUS NEWS AND ANALYSIS

DATE:

13/10/2008

Belarus: An EU Overture and Moscow's Wrath

Summary

The European Union's foreign ministers met Oct. 13 to agree to suspend sanctions against Belarus' leadership. After years of poor relations between Belarus and the West, Brussels is seeking to exploit tension between Russia and Belarus. But for Minsk, risking the ire of Russia might bring on more than it bargained for

Analysis

The foreign ministers of the European Union met Oct. 13 in Luxembourg to agree to suspend sanctions against the Belarusian leadership for six months.

Relations between the West and Belarus deteriorated in the mid-1990s when Belarusian President Aleksandr Lukashenko began banning Western diplomats from the country. This action led to a suspension of Belarusian relations with the European Union and eventually the United States. Currently, there are 40 Belarusian political figures, including Lukashenko, under Western travel bans and asset-freezing orders.

This diplomatic spat showed that Belarus was closed to Westernization following the fall of the Soviet Union. Today, Belarus remains politically and economically isolated, though it maintains ties to Russia. To Moscow, Belarus is one of two remaining buffers between Russia and Europe, which is one reason Russia keeps the much smaller country under its thumb.

The West began hinting at a possible normalization of relations with Belarus to counter a resurging Russia after the Russian-Georgian war. The West said Belarus had to improve its human rights record by freeing political prisoners and then holding free and fair elections. Minsk did the first -no doubt attracting Moscow's notice - but failed to meet the second requirement by not allowing any opposition groups into the government. Because of this, it seemed certain that sanctions would remain in place when the European Union began meeting on the matter the week of Oct. 12.

The Oct. 6 meeting between Lukashenko and Russian Prime Minister Vladimir Putin has left another, though short-term, opening for the European Union to get its hooks into Belarus. According to Stratfor sources, a dangerous tit-for-tat is taking place between Russia and Belarus. The two countries might be linked to each other, but Belarus has continually acted out against its former - and in most respects, present - Russian master. Minsk, and particularly Lukashenko, feels that Russia does not respect Belarus enough. Belarus aspires to be Russia's partner, not its underling.

The Moscow-Minsk standoff started in August when Belarus decided to hold out on recognizing the independence of Georgian breakaway territories Abkhazia and South Ossetia - a recognition Russia was counting on. Belarus saw this act as leverage against the Russians during their natural gas discussions. Russia intends to raise the price of natural gas on Belarus from $128 per thousand cubic meters to a more European level, which stands at around $400 per thousand cubic meters. Belarus is so beholden to Russia over its deficit from natural gas purchases that it has a $9.6 billion debt to Moscow for just the first eight months of 2008. Typically, Russia forgives most of this debt in the forms of billion-dollar credits - the tactic used to keep Belarus on a leash. But once Lukashenko pulled the nonrecognition card, Russia pulled its card of not forgiving Belarus's debt. Moscow was scheduled to give Belarus a credit of $2 billion in August, but it has not yet released the credit.

Though such maneuvers between Russia and Belarus are commonplace and frequent, the stakes have now been raised in two very dangerous ways. First, the European Union is getting involved by sowing the seeds for a future relationship with Belarus. The alliance can play monetary and supportive roles, but it knows that Belarus is still too far entrenched in Russia's circle to fully realign in the short term. And Brussels is still undoubtedly nervous about opening up to Minsk, which is why the sanctions have only temporarily been lifted. But the European Union knows that this is one of the few small openings it will get while Moscow and Minsk are on the rocks.

Lukashenko's most recent move could prove to Moscow that he is not worth keeping around, however. According to Stratfor sources, during his meeting with Putin, Lukashenko suggested that Belarus might postpone its signing of a bilateral accord on the integration of Russian anti-air defense systems in Belarus - something that Moscow sees as a counter to Washington implementing a ballistic missile defense system in Poland and Czech Republic.

The earlier tit-for-tat, and even the EU push for relations with Belarus, are moves that Moscow can counter and not take too seriously. But if Minsk prevents Russia from implementing plans aimed specifically at the West and proving Russia's resurgence onto the international scene, Moscow will take such actions as outright sedition - a game which Belarus, and specifically Lukashenko, might have miscalculated in entering.

Source:

http://www.stratfor.com/analysis/20081013_belarus_eu_overture_and_moscows_wrath

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