BELARUS NEWS AND ANALYSIS

DATE:

02/10/2008

Dictator at bay

A deeply flawed election, but the West is softening its stance towards Belarus

IN A country the Americans have dubbed the last dictatorship in Europe, it is not surprising when an election is criticised by international observers. In Belarus's vote on September 28th, candidates loyal to the president, Alyaksandr Lukashenka, took all 110 seats. European monitors talked of only "minor improvements" on previous flawed votes, called the election campaign "barely visible" and found serious fault with the count.

This poses a dilemma for the West. America and the European Union must decide soon whether Belarus's minimal progress in a democratic direction is enough for them to curtail their sanctions on the country. Mr Lukashenka, a former collective-farm boss who has been in power for the past 14 years, says he is expecting the sanctions to go. Otherwise he threatens to stop talking to the West altogether. Russia's war with Georgia in August has made Mr Lukashenka, for all his flaws, a man worth courting.

Belarus has survived as an independent entity since the break-up of the Soviet Union thanks to cheap Russian natural gas. As the Kremlin prepares to impose a sharp rise in the price of gas, some European diplomats believe it is a good time to woo this on-off Russian ally, especially since Mr Lukashenka has made the first moves. To curry favour with the West, he released political prisoners, allowed some opposition campaigning and invited foreigners to watch. He hired a British public-relations firm, Bell Pottinger. And he resisted Russian pressure to recognise the Georgian enclaves of South Ossetia and Abkhazia.

Belarusian officials say the loosening of the reins reflect economics, not a sudden realisation that democracy is a good thing. The economy is feeling the strain. One of Mr Lukashenka's first post-election decisions was to pass an energy-saving decree. In Minsk public buildings fitted with movement sensors are shrouded in darkness after sunset. The roads are uncongested; the airport is more a museum than a transport hub.

Mr Lukashenka seems in a mood to bargain, an offer the opposition think should be ignored. "If Europe makes one step forward in political and economic co-operation, we will make three steps," he vowed after the poll, adding smoothly that "an election cannot be ideal."

Source:

http://www.economist.com/world/europe/displaystory.cfm?story_id=12342221

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