BELARUS NEWS AND ANALYSIS

DATE:

24/10/2008

EU Policy Towards Belarus

VALERY KARBALEVICH,

Expert of "Strategy" analytical center, Minsk

Several factors influenced the change of EU policy towards Belarus and the lifting of the sanctions for some Belarusian officials in the EU. Firstly, the Caucasian military conflict worsened the West-Russia relations. In this connection, Minsk's geopolitical loyalty is of more importance to Europe that it was before the conflict.

Secondly, President of Belarus Aliaksandr Lukashenka expressed his readiness to dissociate himself from Russia, which was shown by his neutrality policy on recognition of Abkhazia and South Ossetia up to the meeting between Aliaksandr Lukashenka and Russian President Dmitry Medvedev in the Russian city of Sochi. As a matter of fact, Lukashenka refused to recognize South Ossetia and Abkhazia. The West came to realize that he has firm intentions.

Thirdly, Minsk changes its policy towards the West. It stopped the anti-West rhetoric and does not consider the West to be its enemy any more. Minsk has taken steps to fulfill 12 demands the EU placed upon the Belarus two years ago. One of them - to release political prisoners - was satisfied. The parliamentary elections were held in a slightly more democratic way than previously.

And the fourth factor is inefficiency of the previous European influence on Belarus, inefficiency of harsh political statements, economic and political sanctions. This did not lead to the changes in the country.

But it is difficult to speak about the public opinion changes in view of the change in Europe-Belarus relations. Belarus has no public opinion as a fact of the politic life that would influence those issues.

As regards the Belarusian opposition, its leaders are alerted because they have carried on a dialogue with Brussels. But from now on Europe decided to talk with the Belarusian authorities and the opposition finds itself sidelined. Though Europe formally maintains contact with the opposition.

It is hard to predict whether the softening of the EU policy will lead to the Western investment inflow into Belarus. On the one hand, Minsk said that the state enterprises could be turned into joint-stock companies. On the other hand, the world agencies assess the Belarusian economy as a risk one. The world financial and economic crisis also makes the investing difficult. Mr. Lukashenka is not ready to sell the state assets quickly.

This process will be implemented carefully and a specific decision will be made on each enterprise. Lukashenka would not like to be in former Soviet President Mikhail Gorbachev's shoes as an effort to modernize the system quickly can destroy the entire Belarusian regime.

Source:

http://www.eurasianhome.org/xml/t/expert.xml?lang=en&nic=expert&pid=1785&qmonth=0&qyear=0

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