BELARUS NEWS AND ANALYSIS

DATE:

23/11/2006

Belarusians Prize Stability of `Europe's Last Dictatorship'

By Katya Andrusz

Nov. 23 (Bloomberg) -- Olga Tslinskaya says she's happy with life in Belarus, the country the U.S. labels ``Europe's last dictatorship,'' because it's been spared the political and economic upheaval that has hit so many former Soviet republics.

``I know there's no hunger, no poverty here,'' the 42-year- old orthodontist said in her flat in the capital, Minsk. ``I think we're just more likely to have the stability we need if things stay as they are.''

It's that stability that's kept President Alexander Lukashenko popular in Belarus, a country of 10 million sandwiched between Poland and Russia. And it shows what European Union officials are up against as they try to persuade Belarusian authorities to hold free elections and guarantee freedom of speech in return for increased trade links and aid.

``Support for Lukashenko today is based on economic success,'' Valery Karbalevich, head of political research at the Strategy Center, an independent Belarusian think-tank, said in an interview in Minsk. ``When he first came to power, it was his charisma that made him popular. Now the support is much more rational.''

Lukashenko, 52, won a third term in March after elections that the Organization for Security and Cooperation in Europe said fell short of democratic standards.

`What They Are Missing'

``The people of Belarus have a right to know what they are missing,'' EU External Affairs Commissioner Benita Ferrero- Waldner in a statement this week outlining the EU's offer. ``I hope the people of Belarus will see this paper as a chance to look toward a democratic future, and that the government of Belarus will take this opportunity to begin the reforms their people need, and end their isolation.''

Opposition leader Alexander Milinkevich said the EU's proposal could be a key step to breaking through the state propaganda machine and ordinary Belarusians' fear of change.

An International Monetary Fund report published in August found Belarus had the lowest level of poverty in the Commonwealth of Independent States. The 12-nation CIS is made up of the countries that emerged from the collapse of the Soviet Union in 1991, excluding the three Baltic states, which are now members of the EU.

The Belarusian Finance Ministry forecasts the economy will grow 9.2 percent this year. Growth is helped by Russian supplies of gas at $47 per 1,000 cubic meters -- less than half that charged to neighboring Ukraine, though Russia's state-owned gas company OAO Gazprom says it plans to raise prices next year.

Close to Russia

While Belarus remains closely bound to Russia politically and economically, and the two countries are even considering merging their currencies, other CIS states have made efforts to break away from their powerful ally.

Belarus's southern neighbor, Ukraine, has tried to reduce its dependence on Russia since President Viktor Yushchenko won rerun elections at the end of 2004, pledging to bring his country into the EU and the North Atlantic Treaty Organization. Ukraine has already received support from the EU's so-called Neighborhood Policy, for which Belarus would be eligible if it undertook reforms.

Georgia is caught in an escalating dispute with Russia that began when U.S.-educated President Mikheil Saakashvili came to power after a bloodless revolution in late 2003.

`We Have Peace'

In southeastern Belarus, close to the Ukrainian border, Julia Primotor, an 84-year-old former teacher, survived World War II and the Chernobyl nuclear accident and is now sure that she doesn't want her country to go through any more changes.

``I have suffered so much,'' she said, sitting on a bench with a group of friends in front of her Soviet-built apartment block in the town of Gomel, around 130 kilometers (80 miles) northeast of Chernobyl. ``We had the war, the terrible time that came after it, and then the radiation. But now we have peace, and I have my dignity.''

According to a June 15-25 poll of 1,505 adults for the Independent Institute of Socio-Economic and Political Studies, 68.3 percent of Belarusians backed Lukashenko, who has been in power since 1994.

Another poll of 1,515 people for the same institute conducted Aug. 15-25 found that 40.1 percent of Belarusians believed life was better in their country than in Russia, while only 16.4 percent thought it would be better to live in Russia.

At the same time, some Belarusians say they are nervous about the consequences of protesting against the regime.

`A Total Fear'

``There's a total fear here,'' said Artem Ivanov, 31, an unemployed international relations graduate in Minsk. ``All of my friends -- and they're not stupid, they know what reality here is like -- have wives, jobs, children, and they were scared they'd lose their work.''

Against that backdrop, the EU's offer of trade opportunities and additional access to cross-border transport and energy networks is welcomed by opposition leaders as a potential opening.

``I am very glad about the EU's proposal,'' Milinkevich, 59, said in a statement. ``The propaganda tells Belarusians the whole time that they can't hope for anything from the EU, that nobody is waiting for them in Europe. And now, look: We receive a document that confirms the EU is waiting for Belarus after all.''

It was at Milinkevich's behest that as many as 30,000 demonstrators gathered on Minsk's central October Square on the evening of the March 19 presidential elections to protest the outcome, which they said was rigged. The U.S. didn't recognize the results, which gave Lukashenko 83 percent and Milinkevich 6.1 percent.

Disapproving Demonstrations

The June IISEPS poll found that 57.4 percent of respondents disapproved of the demonstrations, while 15 percent believed the West was responsible for the lack of dialogue between the government and the opposition.

Milinkevich said in an interview in Minsk last month that he believes a change is under way in Belarus as people become more aware of the opportunities citizens in neighboring countries have.

``People have begun to believe that it's possible to do something after all, that there's an alternative,'' Milinkevich said. ``But if there are no real economic problems, it's easy to create a sense of pseudo-stability.''

Irina Kuchvalskaya, a lecturer in human rights at Gomel's Technical University, says that as long as personal initiative in Belarus is stifled, the country will remain under Lukashenko's rule.

``What we need is to give people the opportunity to use their potential, but our authorities do nothing but take this away from them,'' she said. ``We've been teaching the people here for 100 years that the state will solve all their problems. It's going to take some time to turn that around.''

To contact the reporter on this story: Katya Andrusz in Warsaw at kandrusz@bloomberg.net

Source:

http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601087&sid=a9SV2ci.29wg&refer=home