BELARUS NEWS AND ANALYSIS

DATE:

20.12.2005

EU Belarus radio station delayed as elections loom

By Blake Evans-Pritchard and Andrew Rettman

EUOBSERVER / BRUSSELS - The European Commission's pro-democracy radio project for Belarus is unlikely to start broadcasts before May, while presidential elections in March could see protestors clash with police on the EU's doorstep.

The radio project was originally designed to start up in January, with four consortia of media firms and NGOs from Poland, Lithuania, Latvia, Belarus, Ukraine and Russia having submitted bids for the ?2 million tender.

"We are ready to start broadcasts in January", a director at one of the companies bidding for the contract, Poland's TVP, told EUobserver. "We have to get moving as quickly as possible."

The project is designed to beam in "fair and neutral" news about EU events in order to boost civil society dialogue in Belarus.

But it was never designed to attack president Lukashenko or to influence the vote, the commission indicated, blaming the delays on administrative procedure.

Earlier this month, the EU expressed "concern" over Belarusian legal reforms designed to hamper popular gatherings.

The latest resolution comes on top of November threats to extend diplomatic sanctions against Minsk if the presidential elections fall short of international standards.

The elections were originally expected to be held in July, but have now been officially tabled for 19 March.

Potential challenge to EU foreign policy

The Belarusian opposition and some western diplomats stationed in Minsk fear the elections could lead to clashes between protestors and police, posing a challenge for EU foreign policy.

"If they will fake it [the election] we will call people to the streets...we will come on the streets armless", Belarus opposition leader Alexander Milinkevich told EUobserver, adding:

"One of the generals said during the [previous] protests 'We will beat you if you will gather two thousands of people, but if you gather hundreds of thousands, we will join you.'"

A western European official indicated "The question is whether or not junior officers, normal soldiers in the army, sergeants would actually follow [president Lukashenko's orders]. It's not too clear once you get below the high level command structure."

Asked if any potential government reaction would take the form of sporadic beatings as in last November's referendum or something more severe as in Uzebekistan this May, the contact said:

"It depends if Lukashenko overreacts. No one can really predict this, but he could order to crack down hard with any means necessary."

Denim revolution unlikely

It is unclear how many protestors would be prepared to take their chances in a 'denim revolution', as the movement has recently begun to call itself.

Mr Milinkevich is confident, indicating "We will get the support of the majority of Belarusian voters. There is no doubt about it. As well as we are sure the Belarus Central Electoral Committee will never announce our victory."

But analyst Michael Emerson from leading think-tank CEPS said "The regime is extremely solid and the prospects of an [Ukraine-type] Orange Revolution are rather thin."

Belarusian diplomats also forecast that "The elections will take place in a calm atmosphere. Belarusian people are rather quiet and careful."

Looking at recent history, 50,000 people called for Mr Lukashenko's resignation in 1996 on the tenth anniversary of the Chernobyl nuclear disaster in Ukraine, but the move achieved little.

In November 2004 some 1,000 people demonstrated against a referendum extending the presidential mandate, while in January this year VAT-related price hikes proved to be a bigger issue with about 2,500 coming out on the streets

Cold March weather and Ukraine's post-revolution economic slump and corruption problems could also influence people to stay home.

Mixed emotions on EU policy

Mr Milinkevich indicated the current EU visa ban on six Belarus politicians has proved helpful in criticising the Minsk regime.

Belarus officials called the visa ban "inefficient and shortsighted" urging for "a mutually-beneficial dialogue with the EU, as equal partners without pressure."

But the opposition leader added that EU statements have had no impact on government policy.

"It's obvious European policy toward the Belarusian regime has failed. European politicians did try to educate the Belarusian leadership, but it's impossible", he said.

Mr Milinkevich would like to see Minsk embark on a slow march toward EU membership while keeping strong relations with Russia.

"Belarus should be in the European Community because only in Europe could we realise Belarusian national interests, in politics, economy, culture", he indicated.

"Russia is our strategic partner and everyone in Belarus realises this, [but] it is vitally important that our contacts with the east shouldn't block our contacts with the west."

Source:

http://euobserver.com/9/20590

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