BELARUS NEWS AND ANALYSIS

DATE:

29/12/2005

Outside View: Putin's resolution?

By ETHAN S. BURGER AND PETER LAVELLE

UPI Outside View Commentators

MOSCOW, Dec. 29 (UPI) -- As we approached the holiday season, many of us engaged in the ritual of thinking about and perhaps even formalizing our New Year's resolutions. Sometimes this is accomplished in secret and the results are not revealed. Other times, friends and family gather and in festive holiday spirit to read aloud how each will seek to change in the coming year. Fortunately, these commitments are seldom memorialized so that they can be the basis for future recriminations.

In 2006, Russian President Vladimir Putin becomes the head of the G8. He has indicated he wishes to concentrate the group's efforts on energy issues, demographic issues, i.e. the implications of Europe's declining population and combating infectious diseases. Each area represents a significant policy concern to the G8 members.

There was considerable opposition within some governments and the human rights community when the G7 expanded to the G8 to include Russia. Few would contend Russia was then a well-established democracy operating on the basis of the rule of law; and of course there was the situation in Chechnya. Nonetheless, those seeking to more fully integrate Russia into the international system due to its economic and strategic importance carried the day.

The next G8 summit will be held in St. Petersburg. Recent developments in Belarus have handed Putin the opportunity to strengthen those who have advocated engagement over isolation as a way to promote favorable developments in the country (perhaps illustrated by the apparent elimination of the most troublesome provisions of Russia's proposed new law on non-governmental organizations).

Belarus has frequently been called Europe's last dictatorship. In 2004, both houses of the U.S. Congress unanimously adopted the Belarus Democracy Act after Belarusian President Aleksandr Lukashenko staged a referendum to change the Belarusian constitution to eliminate presidential term limits. In January 2005, Secretary of State Condoleezza Rice included Belarus among the "outposts of tyranny." Belarus represents the eastern border of both the European Union and NATO, and in the post-cold war world offers Russia little real value.

More than 15 years ago, President Ronald Reagan made history when he stood at the Brandenburg Gates and called on Soviet President Gorbachev to "take down the wall" dividing Europe in two. Putin has been handed the potential for a similar public relations coup to lend support to Russia's inclusion in the G8 family.

Last month, Lukashenko announced that the country's next presidential election would be held not in July as had been suggested earlier, or in September, five years after he was "re-elected," but on March 19. This date was most likely selected since it will give the united opposition candidate Aleksandr Milinkevich less time to organize an effective campaign and prevent other candidates from qualifying for the ballot, reducing the possibility of a run-off if Lukashenko cannot claim to have won 50% of the vote in the first round. Arguably, this early date for the Belarusian presidential election is in violation of Article 19 of the country's constitution.

It is no secret Putin has never had a warm place in his heart for the mercurial Belarusian president. Since Russian television reaches the vast majority of the Belarusian people, programs depicting Lukashenko's repressive rule and the country's resulting diplomatic isolation may have some sway with the Belarusian voters. If Milinkevich assures Putin that while Belarus would seek admission into the EU, like Finland and Sweden, it would not join military organizations or permit foreign troops to be stationed on its soil, Russia thus could play a role in bringing about a color revolution that could be to its benefit.

In the view of many economists, Belarus represents a net drain on the Russian economy since it receives subsidized energy that would yield a higher price on the world market. This would give Putin a chance to send a signal to the other members of the G8 as well as his own citizens that he envisions Russia's future as being based on shared values, but perhaps on a schedule recognizing that it is impossible to change a country overnight.

(Ethan S. Burger is a research scholar at the School of International Service and an adjunct associate professor of law at the American University's Washington College of Law in Washington. Peter Lavalle is a Moscow-based analyst).

(United Press International's "Outside View" commentaries are written by outside contributors who specialize in a variety of important issues. The views expressed do not necessarily reflect those of United Press International. In the interests of creating an open forum, original submissions are invited.)

Source:

http://www.upi.com/InternationalIntelligence/view.php?StoryID=20051229-112446-8793r