BELARUS NEWS AND ANALYSIS

DATE:

Saturday December 17, 2005

Belarus leader tightens grip in run-up to March poll

Nick Paton Walsh in Moscow

The Guardian

Belarus set March 19 as the date for presidential elections yesterday, ushering in three tense months of renewed political oppression to prevent any protest-led revolution in the authoritarian republic.

The Belarussian parliament, broadly obedient to President Alexander Lukashenko, voted unanimously to set the date a full six months before he finishes his second term. The United States has branded Mr Lukashenko "Europe's last dictator", while the European Union has considered sanctions to get him to loosen his tight grip on the country's economy, politics and society.

The announcement came a day after he met his key ally, President Vladimir Putin of Russia, at Sochi on the Black Sea. The meeting was closed to the press, but the Kremlin said "energy cooperation" was high on the agenda. Diplomats said the meeting may have been used to secure Russian economic and geopolitical support for Mr Lukashenko's re-election. "It looks like Putin will support him," said a senior western diplomat, who had been expecting the poll to be held in July.

Since the recent protest-led revolutions in Georgia, Ukraine and Kyrgyzstan, Belarus has tightened its already strict censorship and Soviet-era controls. Parliament passed a law this month that punishes "distributing false information about Belarus" with up to to three years in jail. The opposition press has been partly shut down and some of its journalists have died in mysterious circumstances. The Polish media have reported that Mr Lukashenko has ordered internet-censoring equipment from China.

The early election is one of the most keenly awaited in the former Soviet Union. Neighbouring Poland and the Baltic states have joined the EU and begun exerting pressure on Mr Lukashenko. Warsaw briefly withdrew its ambassador for three months this year after ethnic Poles were allegedly harassed in Belarus.

Mr Putin has toyed with the idea of uniting Russia and Belarus and installing himself as president-in-chief, thereby extending his rule. But his apparent desire to step down in 2008 has frozen this plan.

Diplomats believe that Thursday's meeting may have been used to secure cheap gas and oil for Belarus, preventing any economic upset in the near future. "Economic problems would be the spark for any unrest," said one western diplomat, adding that such a prospect looked unlikely now. About 80% of the economy is controlled by the state, and its relative prosperity remains a key factor in mollifying the electorate. The diplomat said the ongoing crackdown was "probably due to classic Soviet paranoia".

The opposition, often dismissed because of its internal squabbling, has united behind Alexander Milinkevich, 58, a professor. Barred from the state-controlled media, he is trying to drum up support by touring the country, promoting his image as a dissident.

He told the Guardian by telephone that "a large number of people in Belarus want change". He said: "We were ready [for an early vote]. The authorities are afraid of elections as my ratings are rising fast. The people in the country understand that the authorities are not sure of themselves and know they would lose the elections if they were held honestly."

Backstory

President Alexander Lukashenko, 51, was elected in 1994. He is a former Soviet hardliner, and as an MP supported the coup against Mikhail Gorbachev. Since his election, he has extended his first term by two years with a 1996 referendum, and last year used another plebiscite to remove the limit of two presidential terms. According to official results, he won at least 70% in all three votes, none of which was recognised as democratic. Tensions over his authoritarian style have risen as neighbouring Poland and the Baltic states have joined the EU, and Ukraine underwent protest-led regime change last year. Russia has sought to increase its influence by bolstering the economy with cheap fuel supplies.

Source:

http://www.guardian.co.uk/russia/article/0,2763,1669521,00.html