BELARUS NEWS AND ANALYSIS

DATE:

December 17, 2005

Belarus Sets Date for Presidential Election That Opposition Calls Its 'Last Chance'

By STEVEN LEE MYERS

MOSCOW, Dec. 16 - The Parliament in Belarus voted Friday to hold the country's next presidential election in March, opening an accelerated campaign between its authoritarian leader, Aleksandr G. Lukashenko, and a beleaguered opposition movement.

The election will be a watershed for Belarus, which Mr. Lukashenko has led since 1994 with an increasingly repressive hand. He has revived symbols and policies of the country's Soviet past, eroded personal and political freedoms and stifled all forms of dissent.

The democratic opposition - now unified behind a single candidate, Aleksandr Milinkevich - has called for a free election, but its leaders doubt that one will take place. They have increasingly focused their attention on mobilizing people for mass protests like those in Ukraine last year after that country's fraudulent presidential election.

"If our campaign is effective, then we will get people out into the street," Mr. Milinkevich said in an interview this week while campaigning in the western Belarussian city of Brest. "This is the last chance for us, the last battle."

The election has raised the specter of a new and possibly violent confrontation over democracy following popular upheavals in two other post-Soviet nations, Georgia and Ukraine, and more suspect elections recently in two others, Azerbaijan and Kazakhstan.

With 10 million people, Belarus borders new members of the European Union that have openly called for democratic change there, as has the United States. During a meeting with President Vladimir V. Putin of Russia in May, President Bush called for "free and fair elections" in Belarus. Secretary of State Condoleezza Rice called Belarus "the last true dictatorship in central Europe."

"It is time for change to come," she said in April.

Mr. Lukashenko is eligible to run again only because of a constitutional amendment approved in a referendum in October 2004 that abolished presidential term limits, allowing him to seek office indefinitely. That referendum approval, officially supported by 77 percent of voters, was widely denounced as a fraud. An independent survey of voters leaving polling places indicated that only 48 percent had voted in favor of abolishing term limits.

Mr. Lukashenko has responded defiantly to international criticism. With the election approaching, his government has put independent newspapers under new pressure by revoking their ability to be sold through state-owned kiosks or delivered through the state postal system.

The two houses of Parliament also toughened criminal penalties for organizing protests, joining banned organizations or speaking against the national interest. The legislation, awaiting Mr. Lukashenko's signature, would impose prison sentences of up to three years for anyone convicted of advocating the overthrow of the government and up to two years for "discrediting the country."

Parliament voted to set the election for March 19 in a hastily called session. Under the country's Constitution, twice revised by Mr. Lukashenko, the next election could have been held as late as July. But with Mr. Milinkevich's campaign showing signs of winning popular support, according to its own polls, many of his aides believed that Mr. Lukashenko would move to compress the election campaign.

Nikolai I. Lozovik, a spokesman for the Central Election Commission, said in a telephone interview that the date had been set because of more prosaic concerns: "July is the time of vacations." He added that March elections were "an old Soviet tradition."

The Parliament's vote came a day after Mr. Lukashenko met with Mr. Putin in the Black Sea resort of Sochi. Mr. Lukashenko was quoted by news agencies as saying he would discuss the elections with the Russian leader. Although the two men have had chilly relations at times, Mr. Putin has been a reliable ally.

The Kremlin, dismayed by the Orange Revolution in Ukraine that overturned an initial victory by a Russian-backed candidate, appears unlikely to break with Mr. Lukashenko to support an opposition candidate promising democratic, economic and political reforms.

In a telephone interview after the vote on Friday, Mr. Milinkevich said the earlier election date would curtail his time to travel and meet voters in person - something essential to his campaign because of a blackout on state television and radio.

An abbreviated campaign could also limit the influence of foreign assistance, including nearly $12 million pledged by the United States to support civic and political groups, though not Mr. Milinkevich directly.

At the same time, Mr. Milinkevich said the decision to hold elections in March underscored the government's concern over signs that popular support for Mr. Lukashenko has waned after nearly 12 years in power.

"This decision is more evidence of their uncertainty," he said of Mr. Lukashenko and his circle. "They realize they cannot win in honest competition."

Source:

http://www.nytimes.com/2005/12/17/international/europe/17belarus.html