BELARUS NEWS AND ANALYSIS

DATE:

22/12/2006

Western sanctions leave Belarus unfazed

Nezavisimaya Gazeta, Kommersant

Following moves by the European Union, the United States, and Canada to introduce economic sanctions against Belarus, Minsk is more concerned about the losses it could incur from Russia's actions.

Minsk is not commenting on the bad news from the West. Yaroslav Romanchuk, director of the Belarusian Mises Research Center, said the Western sanctions taken together "are a pat on the shoulder compared to what Russia is doing to Belarus."

Romanchuk said Canada's share in Belarusian trade is less than 1%, and therefore its sanctions are merely a political gesture that cannot seriously affect the Belarusian economy.

According to the expert, economic sanctions, which the EU intends to enforce next spring, as well as the U.S. embargo could cost Belarus $250-$300 million. However, Russia's decision to increase crude tariffs will subtract more than $3 billion from the Belarusian budget.

The West, which suspects Moscow of preparing the ground for incorporating Belarus, has started preparations for a battle for Minsk. U.S. Ambassador to Belarus Karen Stewart said the United States would not recognize the results of a referendum on the establishment of a Union State of Russia and Belarus, which the Kremlin has been forcing on Minsk for a long time.

Ariel Cohen, senior research fellow in Russian and Eurasian Studies and International Energy Security at the Sarah and Douglas Allison Center of the Davis Institute for International Studies at the Heritage Foundation, said the ambassador's words were directed not only at Alexander Lukashenko, but also at Vladimir Putin.

In addition to an open refusal to recognize the legitimacy of the referendum, proposed by Secretary of the Union State Pavel Borodin, the State Department is probably hinting to the Kremlin that it would not recognize the legitimacy of a third presidential term for Putin, if he becomes the head of the state formed through the unification of Russia and Belarus, Cohen said.

Source:

http://en.rian.ru/analysis/20061221/57578649.html