BELARUS NEWS AND ANALYSIS

DATE:

11/12/2007

Everything Old Is New Again - Now We Know It for Sure

The Price of the Question

The plan for Russia to merge with Belarus into a united state in 2008 and for the outgoing Russian leader to become the union's president has been discussed for more than a year. The idea was so hotly debated that it started to seem naive, trite and not realistic.

Russian journalists had a similar zest last year watching the pre-election run of two possible presidential candidates, Dmitry Medvedev and Sergey Ivanov. Everyone put up with the idea of having two, not, say, three successors. Last summer I had a chance to read essays of applicants to a prestigious Moscow college. One of the topics to discuss was the 2008 election. All the applicants wrote about the same thing. "Successors of President of the Russian Federation Vladimir Vladimirovich Putin are First Deputy Prime Ministers of the Government of the Russian Federation Dmitry Anatolyevich Medvedev and Sergey Borisovich Ivanov." The word "successor" was capitalized as if it was a position stipulated by the constitution.

But it was all gone later. The idea of two successors started to look old. There came new Prime Minister Viktor Zubkov who was immediately called the next president. We learnt about the phenomenon of "national leader". Russians went to vote to support this leader. So much time has passed since we had two successors that we almost forgot that naive time.

Here is a surprise. Everything old is new again. The successor of yesterday has swiftly turned into the successor of tomorrow. If we follow the logic, the idea of the United State of Russia and Belarus would not seem so out of this world. It is increasingly easy to believe that the incumbent president may become the president of the union with Messrs. Medvedev and Lukashenko as his vice-presidents.

There is no need for the actual unification of the two countries. Back in 1994 Slobodan Milosevic left the post of Serbian President for the seat of President of Yugoslavia which at that time consisted of Serbia and Montenegro. The change was a formality. In real life, the legally united state was already separated with the two republics living their lives independently. Serbia was governed from Belgrade and Montenegro from Podgorica. Milosevic hammered out a deal with Montenegro's Prime Minister Dukanovic. The Serbian president became Yugoslavian so that he did not have to amend the Serbian constitution which barred three consecutive terms but he promised to be involved only in his republic and not to interfere in affairs of neighboring Montenegro.

The implementation of this kind of plan in Russia would be jeopardized by early publicity. Even the most improbable thing can become if it is unexpected. New Year holidays are even more dangerous for the future unification. "Unfortunately, we have to do it before the New Year since the law requires us to do something," Vladimir Putin said on Monday referring to the nomination of Dmitry Medvedev. He will have to be even busier if he wants to create a new state soon. And this time he may just feel lazy.

Mikhail Zygar, special correspondent

Source:

http://www.kommersant.com/p834791/r_520/Op-Ed_Medvedev_Belarus/