BELARUS NEWS AND ANALYSIS

DATE:

02/12/2008

Russia wants Belarussian leader to make up his mind

By Lyudmila Alexandrova, Itar-Tass World Service writer

It looks like Moscow and Minsk are divided again. A much-anticipated, crucial meeting of the State Council of the Russia-Belarus Union State, scheduled for last Monday, was canceled.

Analysts believe that Lukashenko goes ahead with balancing somewhere between integration with Russia on the one hand, and an independent policy and slight flirtation with the West, on the other, while Moscow insists he should ultimately make up his mind.

At the canceled meeting Russia and Belarus would have signed agreements on political, economic and military cooperation, as well as a draft of the long-expected Constitutional Act of the Union State. Lukashenko was expected to arrive in Moscow for the event.

This is a second time the Belarussian delegation's visit to Russia has been canceled. Originally it was scheduled for November 3, only to be postponed after a meeting Russian President Dmitry Medvedev and Alexander Lukashenko held at the end of October.

Belarus blames everything on Russia, which allegedly refused to expand the agenda - according to a source in Lukashenko's entourage.

The daily Nezavisimaya Gazeta says Belarussian newspapers are quoting an anonymous source as saying Russia's attitude to the idea of building the Union State is erratic and State Council meetings, meaningless formalities. Moreover, to prove Minsk was innocent of disrupting the meeting Belarussian officials offered to make public all working correspondence the two sides had exchanged during the preparation period.

Belarussian analysts argue that the lack of any tangible steps towards building the Union State, first and foremost those Russia is to take, may eventually produce a situation where the Union State will be turned into a 'hobby club'.

"The leaders of both countries have never spared flattering statements in relation to their partners," says the daily Moskovsky Komsomolets. "In reality the diplomatic sugarcoat covers a bitter pill of unresolved problems."

The treaty on a unified air defense system has waited for signature for the pasts ten years or more. It was drafted in detail back in 1997, but Minsk has repeatedly postponed its conclusion.

"If Lukashenko signs this document, he will immediately find itself a member of a long-term tandem tied to Russia," says Alexander Fadeyev, the chief of the Belarus department at the CIS Studies Institute.

"This is something he is very reluctant to happen. The Big Daddy (an ironic nick-name many Belarussians and not only them often use in relation to their president for his somewhat patronizing attitudes) wishes his foreign policy to stay multi-vectoral."

This is precisely the reason why cooperation in the military sphere between Russia and Belarus has not gone much father than fine statements of intent.

The price of gas is another major issue. The two countries remain divided on how much Belarus will be paying Russia for fuel next year. Minsk insists on 140 dollars per 1,000 cubic meters. Moscow wants to raise it to 200.

Thirdly, Moscow and Minsk have been unable to come to terms on the issue of shifting to ruble settlements in gas trade. Formally, Belarus agreed long ago. In reality Minsk has put forward a number of unacceptable preconditions.

Nor is there any unanimity as to the adoption of the Constitutional Act of the Union State, which has been in the drafting phase for many years.

In a word, it is clear that cooperation between Moscow and Minsk has developed wide cracks. Moscow has already walked its part of the road to agree to lend Belarus one billion dollars. Belarus says this not enough. In the middle of December the International Monetary Fund is to say if it will extend a two-billion-dollar loan to Belarus. If the decision is positive, Moscow's influence on Minsk will ease considerably.

The canceled meeting should not be presented as some sort of a sensation, though. It may take place after all before the year is out, says Alexander Fadeyev. However, he agrees that contradictions between the two countries are rather serious. Belarus is waiting for decisions by the EU and the IMF. Also, it would like to understand what type of attitude the incoming Obama Administration in the United States will take towards Lukashenko.

"As long as Minsk has no clarity, the chances for closer relations with Russia will look slim," he believes.

The daily Komsomolskaya Pravda quotes an interview Lukashenko granted to the mass media just recently.

"How can one go about the business of creating a close union and stay independent at the same time?" the Belarussian president asked a France Presse correspondent. And he answered the question himself. "Once again the prevailing opinion in Russia is this - 'We are bigger and they are smaller.'"

So the problem is on the Russian side to a larger extent, is that what you mean? the French journalist asked. Lukashenko responded with a nod.

Lukashenko's equilibrium between integration with Moscow and an independent Belarussian foreign policy has continued since 1996, when the first treaty with Russia was concluded, the daily quotes political analyst Vitaly Silitsky as saying.

So far, there have been changes only in Russia's position. Moscow has come up with harsher terms. Lukashenko has been told to make up his mind. Either he complies with all of the previous integration agreements - a common currency, a common air defense and the Constitutional Act, or he ventures onto the high seas on his own, with the load of problems Russia is no longer responsible for.

"Minsk has tried to take a pause as long as possible. Apparently, at the canceled meeting of the State Council he would have had to answer either-or questions. Now there has been fresh evidence of what many suspected long ago. Lukashenko is reluctant to agree to real integration," the political scientist said.

Source:

http://www.itar-tass.com/eng/level2.html?NewsID=13334991

Google
 


Partners:
Face.by Social Network
Face.by