BELARUS NEWS AND ANALYSIS
DATE:
27/02/2008
Sleight Of Mouth
ALEH NOVIKAU, MINSK
Aliaksandr Lukashenka has declared that in the nearest future he will devote his time to combating the "Iron Curtain". By the 'curtain' he means the isolation regime which has been established by the unfriendly states around Belarus.
One can interpret the Belarusian President's statement in two ways. It is either Mr. Lukashenka yet again decided to make it hot for the screen and jalousie lovers or he is serious about "remaking" his own enclosure.
Lukashenka's Sinews of Peace speech took place during his visit to the new building of the Faculty of Journalism at the Belarusian State University. The audience was invited to the Guarantor's view of "Belarus in the modern world".
From the political point of view the public statement made by the leader on this issue looked extremely timely. Nearby the Ukrainian-Russian conflict over the gas delivery prices first smoulders then flares up, giving rise to unpleasant associations in Belarus. There has been some progress in Minsk's dialogue with Brussels - European Commission is opening its Mission in the Republic of Belarus. Simultaneously, Russian Ambassador in Minsk promises that as soon as "the election in Russia is over, we will return to drawing up the Constitutional Act":
Mr. Lukashenka's speech was basically a reading set of trite theses about independence, the opposition's fifth column, the horrors of the unilateral world. To liven up this monotonous enumeration it was peppered - in such a typical style of Mr. Lukashenka's discourse - with minor follow-up commentaries, some of which were quite noteworthy.
Judging by the reaction of the opposing mass media the basic meaning of this event for the authorities was for Mr. Lukashenka to pronounce just a few magical phrases. The problem at issue is the causes of the recent release of a few political prisoners. The President uttered the following: "We have compromised. I am talking about the early or conditional release of a few prisoners for whom the West have strong feelings. Their release has nothing to do with the justification of the committed crimes but is determined by humane considerations: We have turned over this painful page in our relations with the West, and we are the first to offer a breakthrough. Now it is European Union's turn to demonstrate its good will towards the Belarusian people". It seems as those released were not the Belarusian oppositionists but rather French Ambassador's illegitimate children. It is quite possible though, that Mr. Lukashenka meant to arouse this very connotation with the audience.
Anyway, the Head of the Belarusian state publicly confessed that the limits of the notorious independence are quite flexible and could be altered considerably to one or another side, should the external situation require to.
This eye-catcher took place against the background of the Ukrainian-Russian sword-play tied to the prospects of Ukraine's accession to NATO. At such a moment it might seem quite timely for Minsk to stand shoulder to shoulder with its natural historical ally (that is what Mr. Lukashenka called Russia in his speech) and to imply that reciprocity is desirable.
However, the official tone suggested that the Belarusian authorities are unwilling to get engaged in the conflict. The commentaries of the confrontation in the state-sponsored press sound as an aloof observer - the one who is nothing more than curios - rather than a flamboyant mouthpiece of a natural and historical ally of Moscow.
Besides, Minsk can now think of yet another reason why not to take sides in the disputes between Mr. Putin and Mr. Yushchenko: Ukraine's accession to the World Trade Organization.
Unexpectedly for everybody Belarusian Ministry of Foreign Affairs has welcomed this momentous event, and the official press simply lauds the Organization. At the time when Belarus was "a plane with one wing" and staked everything on cooperation with Russia, early accession of the southern neighbour to WTO would have been regarded even if not as a treason, but at least as a scoopful of sand thrown in the mechanism of "reconstruction of economic relations". Now Minsk's bygone illusions of gratuitous nature of Moscow's sponsorship and the adequacy of Russian market for Belarusian exports have dissipated. As long as the eastern neighbour is all but the exclusive creditor and investor of Belarus and takes in quite a significant part of Belarusian exports, the government's intentions to make the country's economy a credit-addict are fraught with ultimate pawning of national industries. The search for the factors that could counterbalance the eastern pressure has begun. One of them is the early accession to WTO.
"Ukraine's equal participation in WTO and in regional economic unions with Russia and Belarus could provide Ukrainian economy with a much larger "degree of freedom", that is essential for a sustained and assured development", the Presidential Administration's mouthpiece "SB-Belarus today" sends its wishes to the Ukrainians. In so doing Belarus makes it perfectly clear that Minsk is counting on Kyiv's support in getting its own membership. And that is quite illuminating.
Despite the fact that the Republic of Belarus applied for WTO membership back in 1993 so far the government has feared such a move. It is obvious that the dividends from membership come with a whole range of sacrifices, which could prove quite painful for the import-substituting economy. The government will have to make a choice among the industries catering to the domestic and Russian markets, and those aiming at exports to "far abroad". It seems that at present the latter are prioritized, in particular the basic material and petrochemical industries. This preference is in no small part due to Minsk's aspiration to balance the relationship with Russia, on the one hand, and with "far abroad", on the other hand. It is common knowledge that the image of "far abroad" from Belarusian perspective is double-faced: it is the West and the variegated mosaic of the global South.
The state propaganda all but formally interprets the political "curtain" imposed by the West as the main obstacle to the Republic of Belarus joining WTO. Once in a blue moon "the big economy" has come into conflict with "the big politics". It is about time to think about what the upper classes cannot do anymore and how much the lower classes do not want it.
The author is a columnist of the Belarusian weekly newspaper "Nasha Niva".
Source:
http://www.eurasianhome.org/xml/t/opinion.xml?lang=en&nic=opinion&pid=1011
Archive
