BELARUS NEWS AND ANALYSIS

DATE:

24/03/2007

Belarus' opposition says Sunday's rally will be a test for repressive leader

The Associated Press

MINSK, Belarus: A major demonstration planned for Sunday will test the strength of Belarus' struggling opposition, but the authoritarian government's reaction to the protest will also show whether it is serious about ending the country's status as an international pariah, organizers said.

Last year's annual protest march on what the opposition calls Freedom Day - the anniversary of the 1918 declaration of the first Belarusian state - was brutally broken up. But in recent months President Aleksander Lukashenko has talked about building relations with European nations, long critical of his autocratic regime.

If the government cracks down on demonstrators, opposition leaders point out, Lukashenko risks derailing recent efforts to reduce his dependence on Moscow and end his isolation from Europe. If Lukashenko allows the protests to proceed, though, he risks strengthening his foes - who look to the 2004 Orange Revolution protests in Ukraine, which propelled an opposition leader to power, as a model of what could happen here.

"If we manage to rally without clashes with police, the people will lose their fear," Alexander Milinkevich, the central figure of the opposition forces, told The Associated Press in an interview in his downtown headquarters. "For us, this is critical. It means that next time, more people will come."

Just bringing thousands of supporters to a central Minsk square on Sunday and getting them safely home will be a major victory for the government's foes, Milinkevich said. Police clubbed demonstrators and arrested hundreds at last year's rally, which marked the culmination of an unprecedented weekslong protest against Lukashenko's disputed re-election.

Belarus' president - sometimes called Europe's last dictator - finds himself more isolated than ever. For 13 years he has quashed dissent and opposition parties, jailed opponents and closed independent media.

He has preserved many state-owned companies, relics of the country's Soviet economy, and he has sustained the inefficient economy, in large part, thanks to cheap Russian energy supplies. Now, though, the government faces a crisis. The Kremlin earlier this year more than doubled the price of natural gas to Belarus, from US$46 (?34) to US$100 (?75) per 1,000 cubic meters.

Most Belarusians have yet to feel the economic squeeze, but the pressure has prompted Lukashenko to sound more conciliatory toward the West. European officials, meanwhile, have challenged him to back up his calls for rapprochement with action.

In a move that surprised opposition leaders, Lukashenko ordered the government to commemorate the founding of the first Belarusian state - which was overrun by the Bolsheviks after only 10 months.

The government had never previously acknowledged the date. A separate government-sponsored concert and rally downtown is planned.

"It is our victory in that the authorities for the first time are acknowledging this holiday and will be celebrating it," Milinkevich said. "But they are still not ready to celebrate it together with us."

Still, the government seems determined to limit the size of the opposition rally. Opposition leaders have compiled a list of 34 people who have been arrested or detained ahead of the rally. Human rights groups say police have ordered hundreds of activists around the country not to travel to the capital for the rally.

"Authorities are afraid of direct repression, but hidden repression is under way," Milinkevich told the AP.

Protest leaders hope that tens of thousands of demonstrators will show up in Minsk, where sunny skies and warm temperatures are expected. But the event may not draw as many demonstrators as last year's, which came right after the disputed presidential election.

Sergei, a 29-year-old engineer, and Viktoriya, 28, a teacher, said Belarus needs a change of power and democracy, but they don't plan to attend the rally. They are young parents, "and have responsibilities," Viktoriya explained.

The couple refused to give their last name - a sign of the fear of repression that persists in this nation of about 10 million.

In recent days, both the United States and the European Union have expressed concern about the continuing repression and called on Lukashenko to allow people to exercise their right to gather peacefully.

Source:

http://www.iht.com/articles/ap/2007/03/24/europe/EU-GEN-Belarus-Opposition-Protest.php