Belarus has 40 pct chance of devaluation -RenCap

( - Belarus is experiencing rising financial tensions, with the current account deficit reaching $8.8 bln in 2010 and reserves shrinking by $1 bln in the first two months of 2011 to $4 bln. Although money authorities have pledged they will avoid a devaluation of the Belarus rouble BYR= , Renaissance Capital says now the probability of devaluation is around 40 pct. To avoid this, Minsk will have to prevent a further rapid deficit increase and attract inflows of FX into reserves. If this doesn't happen, Belarus "will likely seek to devalue the rouble gradually, trying to avoid further panic among the population," RenCap says. The Belarus rouble last traded at 3,030 vs the dollar, loosing 1 pct year-to-date.

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