BELARUS NEWS AND ANALYSIS

DATE:

13/12/2007

Geopolitical Diary: Reality Dawns in Belarus

Russian President Vladimir Putin departs for Belarus on Thursday for talks with Belarusian President Alexander Lukashenko about uniting the two states.

During the Yeltsin administration Lukashenko was the biggest proponent of the Belarus-Russia union. In his mind he would serve as vice president, making him a heartbeat away from president of the Soviet Union's successor state. And since that heartbeat belonged to the often inebriated and staggering Yeltsin, Lukashenko's catapult to greatness would be just around the corner.

But in January 2000 the tipsy president with the brake-light-red face stepped down in favor of Putin of the black belt. In addition to being younger and healthier than Lukashenko, Putin also thought of his Belarusian counterpart as a waste of skin. Putin's counterplan for union was for Belarus to simply be swallowed by Russia and for Lukashenko to be swept aside. Lukashenko, his dreams of power shattered, demanded rather petulantly that Russia and Belarus be treated as equals. Lukashenko briefly flirted with the West after this falling out, but the West viewed him in a remarkably similar way as Putin: an economically incompetent, authoritarian punk overly obsessed with his own ego. (Incidentally, Lukashenko gets along famously with Venezuela's Hugo Chavez.)

Not only has the idea of union been stalled ever since, but Putin has steadily whittled away at Lukashenko's power base, gradually ending the preferential treatment Russia granted Belarus on everything from market access to energy prices. The year 2008 will be the first year that Belarus will know what it is like not to be on the dole, something that is sure to impact Lukashenko's popularity deeply. In part, Putin is visiting Minsk to explain to the problematic Lukashenko that most of the remaining apron strings will be cut soon, and that Belarus has no alternative but to join with Russia on Russia's terms.

Moscow could allow Belarus to wallow in Lukashenko's dreams for years, but the world has changed. Russia has its internal house in order, the Eureopean Union and NATO have absorbed all of the old Soviet European satellites as well as the three Baltic states, and China is nibbling away at Central Asia. Belarus is the only grab on offer that will not provoke a strong response from any quarter.

Strategically, a union of the two states could lead to two outcomes. First, as has been all the rage among Kremlinologists of late, it would allow Putin to remain president. Putin's second term expires in 2008, but if Belarus and Russia were to unite into a new state then Putin could become president of that new entity. (Stratfor tends to discount this. Putin is a dictator who enjoys legitimate public support -- he'll do whatever he pleases regardless of what a constitution written by Yeltsin between hiccups says.)

Second, and far more importantly, it would allow the Red Army to return to the European frontier, triggering a mass conniption fit in NATO and potentially a nervous breakdown in Poland. So long as Belarus remains independent, it is a buffer. Reabsorb it into Moscow's territories, and it becomes a launching pad. If we ruled Warsaw, we'd be reaching for the lithium.

All that stands in the way of a merger is an isolated Lukashenko. And if a heart-to-heart with Putin cannot change Lukashenko's calculus, perhaps a bullet will.

Source:

http://www.stratfor.com/products/premium/read_article.php?id=299922&selected=Analyses