BELARUS NEWS AND ANALYSIS

DATE:

13/12/2007

Putin could become leader of a land larger than Russia with addition of Belarus

The Associated Press

MINSK, Belarus: Russia's President Vladimir Putin arrived in Belarus late Thursday for a visit that was closely watched for signs the two ex-Soviet neighbors were advancing toward a long-discussed merger.

The creation of a single state could allow Putin to become the leader of a land even larger than Russia is today after he steps down from the presidency next May.

The Kremlin moved to quash talk of such a possibility, denying that Putin's talks with Belarusian President Alexander Lukashenko and other officials will touch upon a draft constitution that would describe the structure of a unified country's government.

Lukashenko's office, however, said last week that the document would be part of the agenda, and the secretary of the existing Russia-Belarus executive body said Wednesday that it would likely be discussed.

Many politicians and observers in both nations, meanwhile, said that Putin's unusual visit to Belarus signaled his renewed interest in the long-debated merger plan.

"I wouldn't be surprised if Putin tries to speed up a union with Belarus ... to become the president of the unified state," Russian Communist Party chief Gennady Zyuganov said this week.

Putin, who has indicated he will seek to retain significant influence after term limits force him from the Kremlin, does have at least one other option.

On Monday, he said he supported his protege Dmitry Medvedev to become Russia's next president. Medvedev instantly became the overwhelming favorite in the March 2 vote and he, in turn, asked Putin on Tuesday to be his prime minister, though Putin has not yet accepted.

The creation of a single state could give Putin an alternative to the Russian prime minister's post, potentially creating a job that would place him above national presidents.

A merger of the two predominantly Slavic, Russian Orthodox countries would be the first of any two ex-Soviet republics since the Soviet Union split apart in 1991, and would make many Russians proud. But it would deepen Western concerns about an increasingly assertive Russia.

The Kremlin said Thursday that a draft constitution of a union was not on the agenda of Friday's session of the Supreme State Council of the Union State. Prior to the meeting, Putin was to meet privately with Lukashenko late Thursday.

Last week, Russia's Ekho Moskvy radio quoted unidentified members of the Lukashenko administration as saying Moscow and Minsk had struck a deal under which Putin would become president of a Russia-Belarus union while Lukashenko would be speaker of its parliament.

Pavel Borodin, secretary of the existing Russian-Belarusian executive body, said Wednesday that drafts of the constitution being considered would give the president of a new unified country the power to rule over the current national governments.

He said the new constitution, once agreed upon by governments, would be subject to approval by each nation's parliament and put to voters in national referendums.

Some analysts doubt a merger deal could be reached, saying Lukashenko - a Soviet-style leader dubbed Europe's last dictator by the West - is unlikely to cede power.

"The two nations have opposite interests," Minsk-based independent political analyst Alexander Klaskovsky told The Associated Press. "Moscow wants to expand its presence in Belarus, while Minsk wants to get economic assistance while maintaining full sovereignty."

Russia and Belarus signed a union agreement in 1996 that envisaged close political, economic and military ties, but efforts to achieve a full merger have foundered.

In the 1990s, Lukashenko pushed for the creation of a single state, apparently hoping to take the reins from Russia's ailing President Boris Yeltsin. Putin's election in 2000 demolished Lukashenko's hopes to rule both countries.

Two years later the Belarusian leader angrily rejected a Kremlin proposal for incorporating his nation into Russia.

For the second straight day Thursday, Belarusian authorities dispersed demonstrators protesting against a merger. About 15 young people protested briefly in central Minsk, with signs saying "Putin go home" and "No union with Russia," before police detained them and packed them into a bus.

Associated Press writers Yuras Karmanau in Minsk and Jim Heintz in Moscow contributed to this report.

Source:

http://www.iht.com/articles/ap/2007/12/13/europe/EU-GEN-Belarus-Russia.php