BELARUS NEWS AND ANALYSIS
DATE:
14/12/2007
Russia succession intrigue follows Putin to Belarus
By Oleg Shchedrov
MINSK (Reuters) - Russia's Vladimir Putin is visiting Belarus to nurture a union between the two former Soviet neighbours that analysts say could provide the president with a power base after he steps down next year.
The Kremlin has dismissed media reports that Putin and President Alexander Lukashenko of Belarus might sign a pact creating a powerful leader of the union, a job that could allow Putin to maintain influence over his successor.
Putin's last full visit to Minsk was in 2003 and ties with Lukashenko are tetchy, so his talks on Friday have fuelled speculation there is more at stake than the technical cooperation issues officials say are on the agenda.
Putin is required by the constitution to step down in six months and has anointed loyal lieutenant Dmitry Medvedev as his favoured successor. Endorsement from the popular Putin makes Medvedev strong favourite to win a March 2 presidential vote.
Putin, 55, has said he believes he has a "moral right" to retain influence after he leaves office, but how he will do this remains a riddle.
Medvedev this week asked his mentor to serve as prime minister under his presidency. On paper at least that is a subordinate role. Serving as head of a beefed-up Russia-Belarus union could give Putin more status and influence.
"I don't think it is a coincidence that Putin's trip to Minsk follows Medvedev's nomination," said Sergei Mikheyev of Russia's Institute of Political Technologies, a think tank
Some observers speculate the trip to Minsk could have a very different aim. A Russian general said last month Moscow could station missiles in Belarus in response to U.S. plans to site its missile defence shield in Poland and the Czech Republic.
UNION IN LIMBO
Putin was to have dinner with Lukashenko on Thursday evening and on Friday they will attend a summit of the Russian-Belarus union. That body was proclaimed in 1997 with ambitious plans for closer integration.
A customs and immigration union is in effect between Russia and Belarus. It has a parliamentary assembly and a secretariat with an annual budget of $4 billion roubles ($163.8 million).
However, hopes for greater integration have been blocked by disputes on how the state would be led, what do to about a common currency and Lukashenko's objections to a steep rise in the price Minsk pays for Russian gas.
Pavel Borodin, secretary of the Russian-Belarus union, said a "constitutional act" boosting the union's powers and creating a strong leadership post would not be signed in Minsk.
Instead, Putin and Lukashenko would discuss technical issues on how to make the union function more effectively. "They are going to discuss pragmatic issues," Borodin said.
He said too many differences remained over how to proceed with the union, and dismissed speculation such a link-up was being readied to create a role for Putin.
"It is not being prepared for the sake of any specific personality," he told a news conference.
Relations between Moscow and Minsk hit a low last year when Russian gas export monopoly Gazprom sharply increased prices for Belarus, which had long enjoyed the cheapest rates of any foreign customer. Those tensions could re-surface because the two sides have yet to agree a price for next year.
(Additional reporting by Andrei Makhovsky)
(+7 485 775 1242, oleg.shchedrov@reuters.com)
($1=24.42 Rouble)
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