BELARUS NEWS AND ANALYSIS

DATE:

19/12/2007

A Russia-Belarus Union on the Horizon?

Marianna Gurtovnik
World Politics Review Exclusive

On Dec. 13-14, Russian President Vladimir Putin and his Belarusian counterpart, Alexander Lukashenko, attended a conference on the potential union of Belarus and Russia in the Belarusian capital, Minsk. While such conventions have been held periodically since Russia and Belarus formed a loose political union in early 1996, this year's gathering has attracted special attention.

On Dec. 6, Russia's independent Ekho Moskvy radio station announced that the two presidents would meet in Minsk to sign a constitutional act formalizing the union between their countries. The Union would reportedly involve a common legislature, currency, and military. It is expected that referendums will be held in both Russia and Belarus to determine public opinion about the union, although no specific timetable for the votes have been set. Quoting sources in the Lukashenko administration, the station reported that Putin planned to become president of the new formation and Lukashenko its parliamentary speaker. However, presidential spokesmen in Moscow and Minsk have denied these rumors, saying that the constitutional act has not been finalized yet and that the two parties still need to review its draft.

Before Putin announced this week that he would accept an appointment to the position of prime minister if his designated successor, Dmitry Medvedev, is elected as Russia's next president, political analysts in Russia doubted Putin would be satisfied with this role. They speculated that he might be more amenable to a presidential post in the Russia-Belarus union -- a title that would satisfy his political ambitions and allow for a lawful extension of his term.

Negotiations about the Russia-Belarus union have stalled repeatedly in the past, allegedly due to Putin's and Lukashenko's disagreements over the division of powers. Addressing legislators at the Federal Assembly of Russia last April, Putin said that the pace and the magnitude of the merger initiative were up to Belarus. "Russia is ready to integrate with Belarus to the extent that our Belarusian friends are ready for that," he said.

Both Putin and Lukashenko may now be more tempted to move forward with union than before. Firstly, the union may help alleviate Belarus' political isolation. Human rights watchdogs in the West have lambasted Lukashenko for rigged elections and persecution of political dissenters, calling his 13-year rule the last remaining dictatorship in Eastern Europe. In spite of occasional squabbles over gas prices, Russia has remained Belarus's principal ally in the region, especially as other newly independent nations have sought to boost their economic and military cooperation with the United States.

Secondly, the shaky economy of Belarus increasingly depends on Russian gas supplies at discounted prices. A political merger with Russia may assure the continuation of this preferential treatment for Belarus.

Thirdly, Russia is anxious to counter the expansion of NATO, which it perceives to be a threat to its security. Speaking to the press in October, Russian Defense Minister Anatoli Serdyukov noted that the imminent deployment of the alliance's missile defense shield in Eastern Europe "proves the need for a close coordination of military and political activities" between Russia and Belarus. According to unconfirmed reports, such coordination is already underway, and Belarus may soon host Russian nuclear weapons. Russia may feel that the whimsical Lukashenko will be more likely to cooperate consistently on the military front if he is bound by a political agreement with Russia.

Lastly, Russian entrepreneurs may also lobby for the union, as they are eager to participate in the ongoing privatization of the Belarusian economy.

In Belarus, Lukashenko's opponents fear that sealing a union deal with Russia will effectively end the independence of Belarus. The Belarusian National Front staged an unsanctioned demonstration in Minsk on Dec. 12 to protest against Putin's upcoming visit. The police reportedly beat the protestors, injuring at least one of them.

Greeting Putin the day after the protest, Lukashenko told the press "there was no hidden sub-context" to the meeting and that Putin simply paid an official visit to a "friendly union state." Both presidents appeared to want to avoid publicity in light of the media hype surrounding the visit and brewing anti-Russian sentiment in Minsk. On Dec. 13, they held a four-hour meeting behind closed doors before joining the two countries' delegations at the congress of the Russia-Belarus State Council the following day. According to Kremlin sources, the presidents focused on energy issues and the union's 2008 budget. Next year, the budget will reportedly reach 4.61 billion Russian rubles ($186 million) -- up from just 500 million rubles in 1999. The bulk of these funds have so far been spent on bilateral projects. In 2007 alone, Russia and Belarus launched a dozen joint initiatives, mostly related to the production of diesel automobiles and high-capacity agricultural equipment. However, their implementation has lagged due to inefficient coordination and lack of funds.

According to Putin's spokesmen, Putin and Lukashenko did not discuss the constitutional act. However, Newsru.com reported that the Russia-Belarus State Council planned to make unspecified staffing changes in the bilateral committee that was formed to draft the act.

The highlight of the visit was Putin's promise to grant a so-called stabilizing credit to Belarus. Officially, the 15-year, $1.5 billion loan that reportedly will allow a five-year repayment deferral will help the Belarusian government offset recent energy price hikes. Earlier this year, Gazprom, Russia's state-owned energy firm, doubled the price of the natural gas it supplies to Belarus from $50 to $100 per 1,000 cubic meters. Gazprom says this is still the lowest price it charges in the Newly Independent States. However, the move angered Lukashenko, who accused the company of taking advantage of Belarus' dependence on Russian gas. Some Russian analysts claim that the stabilizing credit is Putin's secret weapon, meant to make Lukashenko more agreeable to the Russian leader's proposals. After his meeting with Putin, Lukashenko told the press he would do his best to ensure the uninterrupted transport of Russian gas through Belarus and further to Europe.

Though no ground-breaking deals have marked Putin's visit this time, negotiations about the union are likely to continue. Putin may resign the presidency next year, but it is obvious that he will seek opportunities to retain his influence in Russian politics, most likely as prime minister. Strengthening Russia's presence in Belarus is likely to remain high on his agenda. With presidential elections in Belarus looming in 2011, Lukashenko, too, will look for ways to remain in power. As such, he may be more willing to explore more closely Russian overtures toward union.

Marianna Gurtovnik is a freelance analyst based in the United States. She covers governance reforms, foreign policy, and civil society developments in the Newly Independent States.

Source:

http://www.worldpoliticsreview.com/article.aspx?id=1449