BELARUS NEWS AND ANALYSIS

DATE:

06/12/2007

Putin to Discuss Union With Belarus

By VLADIMIR ISACHENKOV

The Associated Press

MOSCOW -- President Vladimir Putin and other top Russia and Belarus officials will consider next week a proposed framework for the long-debated merger of the two countries into a single state, officials said Thursday.

The unexpected move, coming at a time of uncertainty over Russia's political future, raised speculation that Putin may seek to become leader of the new country created by the merger. That would permit him to step down as Russian president next May, as required by the constitution, but become chief of the enlarged state.

Belarus' presidential office said Putin would attend a Dec. 13-14 meeting in the Belarusian capital, Minsk, that would focus on a draft constitution of a Russia-Belarus union. It gave no details, but any constitution would describe the union's governmental structure.

Analysts and news organizations have speculated for years that Putin could become the president of a combined Russian-Belarusian state. But talks over the merger have been mired in disagreements, particularly over the status of Belarus in the new union.

Asked if the meeting would pave the way for Putin's election as president of a Russia-Belarus union, Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov told The Associated Press: "I don't know anything about such issue being on the agenda."

Sergei Kostyan, a deputy head of foreign affairs committee in the Belarusian parliament, said he saw no movement toward a merger of the two countries.

"Putin's visit will produce no sensations," he told the AP. "Belarus has and will remain an independent country, and Minsk has very clearly said that to our Kremlin colleagues."

But others said the Kremlin may have made Belarus' President Alexander Lukashenko an offer he would find hard to resist _ such as the vice presidency under Putin.

"Such a plan would be a lifesaver for Putin, allowing him to become the leader of a new geopolitical structure without changing Russia's constitution," Stanislav Shushkevich, who led Belarus in 1991-94, told the AP.

Putin, whose approval ratings in November were over 80 percent, said he wouldn't run in the March 2 election because of the constitution's two-term limit. But he has pledged to retain his enormous influence over Russian government and politics.

Putin's party, United Russia, won a crushing victory in Sunday's parliamentary vote, and his supporters called the election a vote of confidence that would allow Putin to remain a "national leader."

The Russian president has left the door open to becoming prime minister, and others suggested he could retain power by leading the United Russia party. He is expected to name a preferred successor who would be all but guaranteed to win the presidency.

Creation of a Russia-Belarus union would give Putin a chance to remain in charge for many years to come.

Any proposed merger would be subject to approval in two national referendums, but the measure could win easy approval because both nations share strong cultural and historic ties.

Yevgeny Volk, head of the Heritage Foundation's Moscow office, said the Kremlin has long toyed with the notion of Putin leading a combined Russia-Belarus union in the past.

"It's not 100 percent probable, but it's definitely a possibility," he told the AP.

Russia and Belarus signed a union agreement in 1996 which envisaged close political, economic and military ties and eventual full merger.

During the 1990s, Lukashenko _ who has been called "Europe's last dictator" by Western critics _ pushed for the creation of a single state, apparently hoping to lead it. At the time, the president of Russia was the ailing, politically compromised Boris Yeltsin.

Lukashenko's ambitions were shattered by Putin's election in 2000.

Two years later, Lukashenko angrily rejected a Kremlin proposal for incorporating Belarus into the Russian Federation _ a plan that would have effectively left him without job.

"Lukashenko isn't enthusiastic about this idea because he would lose power," Shushkevich told the AP. "But a threat of another hike in oil and gas prices could force him to accept it."

Earlier this year, Lukashenko denounced Russia as a "huge monster" when Russia more than doubled the price of natural gas and imposed a customs duty that made oil more expensive.

Belarus was forced to yield control of its national gas pipeline company to Russia _ a move long sought by Gazprom, the Russian gas monopoly.

Despite the acrimony, the two nations maintain close ties. Cheap Russian energy is critical to propping up Lukashenko's Soviet-style economy.

Many analysts, though, are skeptical that the Kremlin can persuade Lukashenko to accept any plan that would make him subordinate to Putin.

"Lukashenko won't allow Putin to turn the union state into a springboard for another term," said Yaroslav Romanchuk, a Minsk-based independent political analyst.

Associated Press writer Yuras Karmanau contributed to this report from Minsk, Belarus.

Source:

http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/content/article/2007/12/06/AR2007120601136.html